Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

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278 articles
Editorial

Foreword

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 0 - 0
Editorial

Foreword

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 0 - 0
Research Article

Reconstruction: Key to Social Responsibility Risk Assessment for Tourism Investment Projects†

Chen Lv, Xiaoyan Li
The strategy of investing large-scale tourism projects abroad has become one of the most important strategies for China to help developing countries to improve their people’s livelihood, provide assistance and practice China’s international responsibility. The proposal and implementation of the Belt...
Editorial

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 1 - 1
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 1 - 2
Editorial

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 1 - 1
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 1 - 1
Editorial

Foreword

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 1 - 2
Editorial

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Ye Xue
Pages: 1 - 2
Editorial

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 1 - 2
Research Article

Biogas - A European Perspective on Safety and Regulation

Olivier Salvi, Samuel Delsinne, Sébastien Evanno
Pages: 1 - 20
The production of biogas is positioned as energy which can not only generate a source of energy known as "green" but also which can recycle waste. In the context of sustainable development, the place of biogas is therefore essential. The risks corresponding to the production processes and uses of are...
Research Article

Review the Parameters of Historical Strong Earthquakes in Tianshui and Its Surrounding Areas

Wu 吴 Qing 清
Pages: 1 - 5
There is a high intensity and frequency of earthquake occurrence in Tianshui and its surrounding areas and it is very important to study on the historical strong earthquakes occurred in that area for knowing about the seismicity and earthquake risk prevention. This paper proposed an elliptical intensity...
Editorial

Introduction to Volume 9, Issue 1

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 1 - 1
Case Study

Risk Mitigation in Managing a Mega Project - a Case Study of Gomal Zam Dam Construction Weight and Cloud Model

George Wang, Wei Hu, Colin Duffield
Pages: 2 - 9
Global contractors operate in an environment that has a variety of alternatives and uncertain circumstances that requires constant circumvention and adjustment. It is not uncommon that a contractor conducting an international project does not comprehensively evaluate the local environments and identify...
Research Article

BP’s Reputation Repair Strategies during the Gulf Oil Spill

Kristen Alley Swain, Lindsay A. Jordan
Pages: 2 - 15
On April 20, 2010, British Petroleum’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico exploded, creating the largest oil spill in U.S. history. Analysis of 1,161 BP tweets during the crisis response reflected unexpected reputation repair strategies and responsibility attribution. Situational Crisis...
Research Article

An Approach to Ranking Integrated Models for Risk Assessment by Using the Internet of Intelligences

Weidan Wang, Sen Qiao, Fanlei Zeng, Jun Guo, Chongfu Huang
Pages: 2 - 9
In natural disaster risk assessment, it is referred to as integrated model which is used to integrate information. The statistical model is essentially integrated model. Usually, people try to search the reasons that choose a model from the theory or case. Based on the thinking of experimental riskology,...
Research Article

Geospatial Information Diffusion Technology Supporting by Background Data

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 2 - 10
In this paper, we express the initial concept of geospatial information diffusion supporting by background data, which plays a role as a bridge to diffuse the information carried by the observations, obtained from observed units, to gap units. The self-learning discrete regression, based on the multivariate...
Research Article

Multicriteria Decision Aid Applications to Support Risk Decisions in the Marine Environment: Locating Suitable Transshipment Areas

Dimitrios I. Stavrou, Nikolaos P. Ventikos
Pages: 3 - 12
The aim of this paper is to develop an MCDA model to support decision makers in the marine environment. The UTASTAR method is employed for the selection of the best area for ship-to-ship transfer of cargo. The method relies on the hypothesis that both the actions and the corresponding criteria interact...
Research Article

Volcanic Risk Perception, Locus of Control, Stress and Coping Responses of People Living Near the Popocatépetl Volcano in Mexico

Esperanza López-Vázquez, Maria Luisa Marván
Pages: 3 - 12
The influence of locus of control and stress on coping strategies in relation to volcanic risk were studied in 156 people living near the Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico. The participants with a limited educational background were more likely than those with higher education to use passive coping strategies....
Research Article

Risk Assessment of Radio Frequencies and Public Information

Marc Poumadère, Anne Perrin
Pages: 3 - 12
The rapid, worldwide development of mobile phones is accompanied in many countries by public concern over the possible health risks of radio frequencies (RF). National and international health agencies have undertaken risk assessments, and an in-depth study was recently conducted with the French Agency...
Research Article

A Fuzzy Method for Assessing Eco-Environmental Disaster Risk Caused by Coalbed Methane in China

Ye Xue, Xiaoxiao Li, Wen Sun, Baozhang Chen
Pages: 3 - 13
Based on an improved risk assessment index system, this paper constructs an eco-environmental disaster risk assessment model during coalbed methane industrialization development in China by using intuitionistic fuzzy sets to describe the uncertain risk information, and the transformed interval value...
Research Article

Kernel Density Estimation of White Noise for Non-diversifiable Risk in Decision Making

Emma Anyika Shileche, Patrick Weke, Thomas Achia
Pages: 6 - 11
Many businesses make profit yearly and tend to invest some of the profit so that they can cushion their organizations against any future unknown events that can affect their current profit making. Since future happenings in businesses cannot be predicted accurately, estimates are made using experience...
Research Article

Average Life Expectancy as a Criterion for Regional Risk Management Weight and Cloud Model

Sviatoslav Timashev
Pages: 10 - 19
The paper considers an important and complex interdisciplinary integration problem – providing, supporting and managing safety of interdependent critical infrastructures (ICIs) of a municipal area or region, embedded in the context and realities of modern society of risk. The problem is solved using...
Research Article

Eutrophication Hazard Evaluation Using Copula-Cloud

Dengfeng Liu, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang
Pages: 10 - 14
A copula-cloud (C-C) coupled framework is proposed with respect to the uncertainty and multi-criteria mapping in water environmental hazard evaluation, with introducing copulas and cloud model theory. In the C-C framework, cloud models are firstly generated with given risk criteria which quantify the...
Research Article

Study on the Changes of Industrial Structure in Sichuan Province before and after the “5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake”

Dongdong Zhu, Xianhua Wu, Peipei Xue
Pages: 11 - 19
On the 10th anniversary of the “5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake” disaster, what changes have occurred in the industrial structure of Sichuan Province? It is an important topic for government, industry and the public. This paper analyzed the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on various industries in Sichuan Province...
Research Article

Discussing the Need to Manage Uncertainty Relating to Users in Road Tunnel Fire Risk Assessment

Panagiotis Ntzeremes, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos, Vrassidas Leopoulos
Pages: 12 - 18
Although tunnels provide roads with numerous advantages, they also include significant risks. Especially, fire accidents are the biggest threats. Nowadays, risk assessment has the predominant role for managing tunnel fire safety and users are in the centre of attention. However, existing methods exhibit...
Research Article

Research on Initial Trust Model of Mobile Banking Users

Baolin Sun, Chaohao Sun, Chang Liu, Chao Gui
Pages: 13 - 20
The trust mechanism and trust model of mobile banking is especially urgent because of its high cognitive risk and poor experience. This article studies several key factors that affect the trust mechanism of mobile banking, such as structure assurance, ubiquity, information quality, initial trust, perceived...
Research Article

Environmental Pollution and Human Health Risks near a Hazardous Waste Landfill. Temporal Trends

Joaquim Rovira, Montse Mari, Marta Schuhmacher, Martí Nadal, José L. Domingo
Pages: 13 - 20
The human health risk assessment associated to the human exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and metals for the population living near a hazardous waste landfill (HWL) in Catalonia (Spain) is here presented. In summer of 2009 and 2010, two monitoring campaigns were...
Research Article

Risk Scenes of Managerial Decision-Making with Incomplete Information: An Assessment in Forecasting Models Based on Statistical and Neural Networks Approach

Dusan Marcek
Pages: 13 - 21
The paper is concerned with measuring of risks in managerial decision-making. It builds upon the uncertainty of economic information, which is converted into the concept of risk expressed in terms of probability and using confidence intervals and standard deviations of the predicted quantities. The paper...
Research Article

The Design of a Drought Weather Index Insurance System for Summer Maize in Anhui Province, China

Ying Xu, Chao Gao, Xuewen Li, Taiming Yang, Xibo Sun, Congcong Wang, De Li
Pages: 14 - 23
We analyzed precipitation anomalies of summer maize in order to establish a drought weather index model that is based on tassel appearance and maturity stage as well as drought yield reduction rate. We utilized daily precipitation data encompassing the period between 1971 and 2010 from 15 agricultural...
Research Article

Research on the performance evaluation of government venture capital fund based on factor analysis and DEA model

Hong-Mei Zhang, Ya-Zhong Chen, Zhe Wang
Pages: 15 - 20
According to the existing domestic and foreign research results as well as the characteristics of the guide fund, this paper constructs the index system of guide fund performance evaluation, selects the data of the part of the enterprises shared by the government guide venture capital fund and uses the...
Research Article

Banking Balance Sheet Channel of Systemic Risk

Vincent B.Y. Gan
Pages: 16 - 30
The role of the banking balance sheet as the source and transmitter of systemic risk is explored. We find that the key balance sheet channels of systemic risk are; (i) bank capital structure choice, (ii) interconnectedness and interdependencies among firms, (iii) correlations of asset composition and...
Perspective

Research on the Contagion Mechanism of Associated Credit Risk in the Supply Chain

Xiaofeng Xie, Yang Yang, Jing Gu, Zongfang Zhou
Pages: 19 - 22
In recent years, the credit crisis of Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd., (HNA), Suntech, Bogang, Dunan, Chengxing and other enterprises, as well as the fact that many enterprises and financial institutions in the supply chain suffer heavy losses caused by the credit crisis, make the associated credit...
Research Article

On Risk and Disability – Investigating the Influence of Disability and Social Capital on the Perception and Digital Communication of risk

Jörgen Sparf, Susanna Öhman
Pages: 20 - 33
Does living as a disabled person affect how risks are perceived? Studies of various population groups show that not only macro level structures but also micro social contexts and individual conditions influence risk perception. This knowledge is important for formulating, designing, and communicating...
Research Article

Rapid Assessment of Disaster Loss and Spatial Distribution of Intensity Residuals in Linfen Area

Xiaofei Han, Zihong Li, Jianjie Bo, Xiaoyun Zhao, Shuangshuang Shi
Pages: 20 - 35
Through the probability analysis of seismic hazard analysis, the probability distribution results of different intensity in each township of Linfen area are given. Through analysis, it is concluded that the probability of occurrence of high-intensity impact in the Linfen basin is higher than that of...
Research Article

The Effects of the Social Context on Pre-Decisional Processes of Protective Action in Beijing Communities

Tiezhong Liu, Hubo Zhang, Xiaowei Li, Huiru Li
Pages: 21 - 30
This paper examined the effects of the social context (media communication, face-to-face communication, and friend and kinship network) on pre decisional processes of individual protective action. A two-stage survey was carried out aimed at residents in Beijing communities in half a year, and then the...
Research Article

Risk Indviduality in Crisis Planning: the Case of Gender in Amercan Agriculture

Dana L.K. Hoag, Catherine Keske, Rebecca Goldbach
Pages: 21 - 28
Crisis response can be improved by accounting for differences in risk perception. We confirm that gender individuality can be an important divider by using a case study of agricultural producers. Women were more risk averse and less confident. However, we found less difference than studies have found...
Research Article

How Crises Model the Modern World

Patrick Lagadec, Benjamin Topper
Pages: 21 - 33
Crises are our new reality. “Black swans” are increasingly becoming the norm; our systems, environments, contexts are structurally prone to crises. Doing more of the same will not be the appropriate way to deal with modern crises: a paradigm shift is needed, based on a more accurate understanding of...
Review Article

Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives

Xin Song, Li Li, Lei Xiao
Pages: 21 - 26
With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this...
Research Article

A Risk Assessment Model based on Attribute Theory

Jiali Feng, Tao Sheng
Pages: 22 - 26
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government has invested 4000 billion to maintain the economic growth. And the investment made the inflation became more seriously. However, the investment has led to high inflation rate. To fight inflation, it is important to understand the effects...
Research Article

The Diamond Princess Cruise: An Accidentally Experimental Model of COVID-19

Liyuan 里远 Liu 刘
Pages: 23 - 25
On February 2020, the Diamond Princess Cruise, which left Japan, was obliged to stay at sea for 14 days-quarantine after it was found that a Hong Kong passenger had been diagnosed SARS-COV2 pneumonia after disembarking. As a result shocked the world, an outbreak of infection occurred on board; the number...
Research Article

Geochemical and Clay-Size Minerals Evidence for the Provenance of LQC Loess Deposits in the Central Shandong, Northern China

Min Ding, Junxiang Zhang, Shuzhen Peng, Wei Zhang, Qiuyue Zhao, Longjiang Mao
Pages: 24 - 34
The identification of the Shandong loess provenance adjacent to the floodplain of the Yellow River external the Loess Plateau is very important for revealing the path of dust accumulation and paleoenvironment, which has aroused widespread concern. In this study, the clay-size(< 5•m) minerals and major...
Review Article

A Critical Review on the Economics of Disasters

Xi Yu, Yandong Tang
Pages: 27 - 36
The idea of economics of disasters can be traced back to the mid-19th century. The field of economics of disaster continues to be expand after 1970s and mainly concentrating in the disaster loss assessment methods, disaster economic impact model, the value of life assessments and disaster insurance and...
Research Article

The Research on Applicability of Amended KMV Model with Different Industries

Yang Yang, Li Li, Zongfang Zhou, Wenying Fei
Pages: 27 - 33
The determination of the default point is the key to applying the KMV model. In the traditional research, the default point is equal to the sum of short term debt and half of the long term debt empirically based on the credit data of American companies. But whether it is fit for the Chinese companies...
Research Article

Study on Mutation Mechanism of Victim’s Psychological Behavior State after Major Natural Disasters

Xuanhua Xu, Yushi Liu, Zitao Zhang
Pages: 27 - 36
Aiming at the problem of victim’s rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in major natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim’s psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...
Research Article

Fuzzy Multicriteria Risk Assessment for Hazardous Waste Management: The Case of Istanbul

Seda Ugurlu, Cengiz Kahraman
Pages: 29 - 41
A hazardous waste is waste that poses substantial or potential threats to public health or the environment. Hazardous waste management is an area of the waste management field concerned with the proper containment, management, and disposal of wastes which could be considered hazardous. In this paper,...
Research Article

Non-Diversifiable Risk in Investment Portfolios --- an Aid to Investment Decision Making

Emma Anyika
Pages: 31 - 46
estimators of diversifiable risk and portfolio expected returns to reflect normal market conditions. GARCH (General Auto - Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models are then used to make forecasts of given time series, from which future predictions of Non - Diversifiable risk, Diversifiable risk...
Research Article

High-rise Building Group Regional Fire Risk Assessment Model Based on AHP

Wei Zhu, Qiuju You
Pages: 31 - 37
Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a regional fire risk assessment model is developed for high-rise building group considering the fire danger degree, basic characters of the high-rise building group and fire control capability. The impact factors, values of typical risk parameter and the weight...
Research Article

New England Compounding Center Meningitis Outbreak: A Compounding Public Health Crisis

Bolanle A. Olaniran, Juliann C. Scholl
Pages: 34 - 42
The New England Compounding Center’s (i.e., NECC) meningitis outbreak represents a major public health crisis of 2012 that led to over 40 deaths, along with infection of several hundred individuals. The outbreak necessitates the need for how such a crisis could be prevented.. The research focuses on...
Research Article

Perception of Risks in Nanotechnology: Determining Key Aspects in Chile

J. Pozo, A. Schmessane, A. Pozo, C. Pozo
Pages: 34 - 43
The purpose of this study is to provide preliminary base-line data on public perceptions about the risks associated with nanotechnology. We analyzed the current development of nanotechnology in Chile and the risks associated with the incorporation of this new technology over time, considering the particular...
Research Article

An Operational Drought Risk Management Framework Based on stream-flow Intelligent Internet control

Rongfang Li, Lijun Cheng, Yongsheng Ding, K. Khorasani, Yunxiang Chen, Wei Wang
Pages: 34 - 43
In this paper, an operational drought risk management framework based on the stream-flow intelligent internet control is proposed. In the proposed framework drought can be predicted, evaluated and mitigated by using a dynamic stream-flow control under the sensors detection. The framework mainly includes...
Research Article

A Study of Spatial Evolution Patterns of Tourist Destinations Disaster Risks

Yingyue Sun, Qingshan Yang, Peng Chen
Pages: 35 - 42
Due to the strong suddenness, large destruction and wide impact, disasters can cause serious property and safety loss to tourists, damage significantly tourism infrastructure, properties and resources. In order to prevent disaster and to better understand future disaster risk evolution, we have built...
Research Article

Study on Meteorological Service Policy for Agricultural Insurance in Hebei Province under the Background of Climate Change

Kaicheng Xing, Shujun Guo
Pages: 36 - 42
Hebei Province is a region sensitive to global climate change. Under the background of climate change and frequent extreme climate events, existing agricultural production structure is facing enormous risk of climate disasters. In order to reduce the risk level of agricultural meteorological disasters,...
Research Article

Optimization of Ventilation and Alarm Setting During the Process of Ammonia Leak in Refrigeration Machinery Room Based on Numerical Simulation

Dongliang Liu, Liang Wang, Tong Wang, Yan Liu, Ya Chen
Pages: 37 - 44
In order to optimize the ventilation effect of ammonia leakage in the refrigeration machinery room, a food processing enterprise is selected as the subject investigated. The velocity and concentration field distribution during the process of ammonia leakage are discussed through simulation of refrigeration...
Research Article

Research on the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 Risk in Long-term Care Facilities based on Prospect Theory

Fengying Zhang, Jianhui Kong, Xiaofeng Xie, Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou
Pages: 37 - 42
In the current complex and uncertainty of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, the elderly in the long-term care facilities are at the highest risk of being affected by COVID-19. There is still uncertain relationship between the identification of this risk and the care management, caring...
Research Article

Economic Fluctuations and Insurance Industry Crisis: the History, Status Quo and the Future

Zhenhua Guo
Pages: 38 - 46
The healthy development of insurance industry influenced the stability of country's financial system. In recent years, the insurance industry has developed rapidly in China, but also hid the huge risks in it. As the economic growth rate slow down, China’s insurance industry may also encounter with crisis...
Research Article

Airborne Levels of Uranium in the Surroundings of Various Industrial Facilities: Human Health Risks

Joaquim Rovira, Victoria Linares, Montserrat Bellés, Marti Nadal, José L. Domingo
Pages: 42 - 47
This study was aimed at determining the levels of natural uranium (U) in air samples collected in the surroundings of various industrial facilities: three cement plants, two municipal solid waste incinerators, and a hazardous waste landfill in Catalonia (NE Spain). Although U concentrations were found...
Research Article

A Cooperative Game Theoretical Approach to Risk Analysis, Using Network Structure

Jun-ichi Takeshita, Hiroaki Mohri
Pages: 43 - 48
The principal aim of this paper is to introduce the framework for a cooperative game theoretical approach to risk analysis using network structure. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is a common methodology for evaluating risks associated with real-world network structure. Although there are numerous...
Research Article

Wargame Mapping and Implementation for Emergency Evacuation of Residents in Urban Waterlogging Disaster

Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Yingyue Sun, Xiaojing Liu
Pages: 43 - 51
Urban waterlogging disaster represented a serious threat to the residents and the traffic. For the purpose of drilling, the wargame excise is introduced to the residents’ emergency evacuation in urban waterlogging disaster. As an essential component of wargame, the chessboard (map) is an important tool...
Research Article

Rainstorm Warning Information in Beijing: Exploring the Local Perceptions and Views

Fangping Wang, Hanping Zhao, Weihua Cao, Xiaoxue Zhang
Pages: 43 - 51
Based on the public’s cognition, evaluation and expectation of rainstorm warning information in Beijing, the descriptive statistics and non-parametric test methods were used for data analysis. The results show that more than 80% of the public can recognize the importance of rainstorm warning, but only...
Research Article

Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information1

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 43 - 53
It is easy to write a story about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) when everything about COVID-19 is known. It is difficult to analyze the death risks of COVID-19 with a few evidences collected before and at the beginning of the outbreak. In this paper, we suggest a hybrid model to analyze the...
Research Article

A Study on Residents’ Risk Perception in Abrupt Geological Hazard

Anping Pan
Pages: 44 - 55
In recent years, there has been an increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, such as typhoons, landslides, earthquakes, etc., now killing and injuring millions of people every year and causing mounting economic losses. The greater tragedy is that many of the losses due to disasters could...
Research Article

Types of Credit Risks and Strategies to Improve Risk Identification by Internet of Intelligences

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 44 - 51
Today, people mainly consider credit risks from view of powerful players. The role of the Internet in the credit risk management is not fully. In this paper, we have a comprehensive look at the credit risks, so that, suggest two concepts: binary credit risk and triad credit risk. The Internet of intelligences...
Research Article

Research on Mechanism of Risk Coupling for Rural Tourism Safety

Jingfeng Luo
Pages: 45 - 50
paper aims at working out analysis model of risk coupling for rural tourism safety accidents. First, based on the regional environmental risk system theory, the rural tourism safety system is analyzed. Second, under the four dimension of man, machine, environment, and management, the diamond model is...
Research Article

Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization with Nelder-Mead Simplex Search Method

Weiquan Yao
Pages: 47 - 53
This paper proposes a novel hybrid algorithm based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm and Nelder-Mead (NM) simplex search method for continuous optimization problems, abbreviated as QPSO-NM. This hybrid algorithm is very easy to be implemented since it does not require continuity...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 47 - 47
Research Article

Living with Flood: A Livelihood Resilience Approach of Rural People in Bihar, India

Madhuri, H. R. Tewari, P. K. Bhowmick
Pages: 48 - 66
Flood is a perennial problem in the state of Bihar, India with devastating impact on the livelihood of people. In spite of the government’s measures of flood mitigation, households continue to live with sufferings on account of severe damage to their material and non-material assets. In this background,...
Research Article

A Discrete Model of the Expected Loss for Catastrophe Insurance in Natural Disasters

Chongfu Huang, Xing Shi
Pages: 48 - 58
The traditional actuarial model of catastrophe insurance is too theoretical. In many cases, it is of no avail. In this paper, we suggest a discrete model of catastrophe insurance to calculate the expected losses. We successfully applied it to calculate the premium rate of the typhoon in Fujian Province,...
Review Article

Review of the Strengths and Weaknesses of Risk Matrices

Mustafa Elmontsri
Pages: 49 - 57
Risk assessment and risk matrices are powered tools used in risk management and help guide in the process of decision-making in organisations. Nevertheless, risk matrices have their own weaknesses and strengths. This paper provides a critical overview of the development and use of risk matrices in different...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 51 - 52
Research Article

Analytical Research on the Accident Risk in Three Industries of China and USA in the Period of 2006-2010

Zongzhi Wu, Shengzhu Zhang, Mingrong Zeng
Pages: 52 - 58
The related data analysis of China and USA shows that the work-related injuries are closely related to the proportion of each industry. High-incidence period is often in the period when the proportion of the secondary industry rises. Increasing proportion of the tertiary industry does good to decrease...
Research Article

Research on the Development of County Finance in Guizhou Province in the Promotion of Precise Poverty Alleviation

Yu Ding, Mu Zhang
Pages: 52 - 60
This paper selects the 50 state-level poverty-stricken counties in Guizhou province as the research object, and uses financial scale, financial efficiency and financial structure to represent the level of financial development in each county, using economic growth and income distribution as controlled...
Research Article

The Study of Estimation on Maize Irrigation Water Requirement in the northwest of Liaoning Province

Xiaojing Liu, Donglai Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Peng Chen
Pages: 52 - 59
This paper took the northwest of Liaoning Province as a study area and maize as the research object. Effective rainfall, crop water requirement and soil available water content at 6 growth stages of maize were calculated by using Penman-Montes equation, effective coefficient method and Cropland Soil...
Research Article

The Risk of Power Imbalance in Project Delivery: A Study of Large Victorian Public Infrastructure Projects

Hamzeh Zarei, Felix Kin Peng Hui, Colin Duffield, George Wang
Pages: 53 - 63
In large public infrastructure projects, political risks due to the power imbalance between central and delivery agencies are often overlooked or underestimated. The primary motive of the delivery agency in distorting information for political gains should be deemed a risk that creates uncertainty for...
Research Article

Research on Society Risk Evolution Mechanism and Counter Measures in Severe Emergency Infectious Disease — in the Case of H7N9 Avian Influenza

Xuanhua Xu, Chenguang Cai, Chunhong Wang
Pages: 54 - 65
In this paper, the evolution and control of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease will be analyzed and studied. Firstly, the evolution chain of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease is constructed to analyze the evolution rule of society risks and identify...
Research Article

Patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents in China

Lei Pang, Zhiwen Zhang, Kai Yang, Pengfei Lv, Siheng Sun
Pages: 54 - 63
Explosion accidents usually lead to serious fatality and disability. To investigate the patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents (FEA), a database containing 1835 FEA that happened in China during 2001–2018 was built. Statistical analysis was made based on the year, month, time interval of day, day of week,...
Research Article

Evaluating of Loan Guarantees Between Parent and Subsidiary Based on Vulnerable Option

Li Li, Zongfang Zhou, Xiao Lei
Pages: 56 - 60
Loan guarantees between parent and subsidiary is the main related transaction in business group, its correct estimation is the foundation of controlling group’s credit risk. Applying option theory, this paper researches the vulnerable option characters of loan guarantees, gives the valuation model under...
Research Article

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 58 - 58
Commentary

The Crisis of Undercoordination

Lotfi A. Zadeh
Pages: 59 - 60
Technological progress—especially in the realms of information processing, communication, transportation, commerce and distribution of energy—is leading to an accelerated growth in interdependence on all levels of modern society. A well-known result in systems analysis is that highly interdependent large-scale...
Research Article

The Risk Assessment of the Fog Disaster

Haibo Hu, Jinjun Pan
Pages: 59 - 64
The fog probability in urban area is determined by the observatory data. Taking the regular grid to be the assessed unit, the Fragility Exponential (FE) is computed upon the gird cell, in which the density of the road-net is stood for, and the FE can be modified according to the important facility distributed...
Research Article

The Spatial Symmetry Axis of Earthquake Hazard in China

Junping Yan, Shuangshuang Li, Jing Bai, Xinyan Liu
Pages: 59 - 64
Natural disaster risk assessment is one of the hot fields of the study of natural disaster. It is of theoretical and practical significance to accurately identify the trend of natural disasters. Not all the natural disaster has the quality of spatial symmetry, only some disasters during some certain...
Editorial

Introduction for Volume 9, Issue 2

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 60 - 61
Research Article

Multiple Internet of Intelligences for Risk Analysis

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 61 - 71
In this study, we define a multiple Internet of intelligences (M-IOI) as the processing of homological information in layers. If agents in an M-IOI not only provide information in response to a question asked by a customer but also review information from other agents and summarize it, we refer to this...
Research Article

A Method for Assessing Risk Rating of Natural Gas Pipeline Based on Accident Statistics

Xiaoyuan Xu, Xuanya Liu, Ge Guo, Chao Ji
Pages: 61 - 68
This article collected 199 cases of domestic natural gas pipeline leakage accidents, and used the mathematical methods and SPSS statistical analysis software to analysis these accident cases. Based on the analysis of accidents statistics and disaster reduction factors, the natural gas pipeline risk rating...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 61 - 62
Research Article

Competency of the Infantry Troops of the Nepalese Army in Disaster Response

Shrijan Bahadur Malla, Shuichi Hasegawa, Ranjan Kumar Dahal
Pages: 62 - 73
Although the Nepalese Army’s regular infantry troops are the tools of disaster response their competency at times becomes questionable. Their disaster response’s soft skill knowledge, technical skill knowledge and preparedness activities along with the perception of senior army officers have been analyzed....
Research Article

Project Portfolio Management Strategies in Housing Estate Development Organizations in Nigeria’s Built Environment

Sadiq Gumi Abubakar, Jingchun Feng, Salisu Gidado Dalibi, Xinpeng Li, Chuanbin Zheng, Liang Cao
Pages: 63 - 74
Nigeria is an African country with abundant natural and human resources with an aspiration to be among the top 20 economies in world by the year 2020. Such objective can only be achieved through requisite infrastructural development projects within the Nigeria’s built environment such as road, power...
Research Article

Risk Combinations in the Risk Analysis and Management

Milík Tichý
Pages: 64 - 71
The analogies between the risks carried by entities and the physical loads affecting building and engineering structures can be applied in the studies of risks forming groups arranged according to specified definitions. Four classes of relations among risks belonging to a particular hazard are to be...
Research Article

An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree

Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘, Hang 航 Li 李, Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
Pages: 64 - 68
The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 65 - 65
Research Article

The Combustible Materials Remote Sensing Ration Calculation and Fire Risk Dynamic

Zhuo Yi, Liu Guixiang, Fengming Yu
Pages: 65 - 74
The amount of combustible material is the primary factor which influences the occurrence and developing of fire. From analyzing the field survey data during the six months of the whole seasons of withered grass in Xilinguole, we obtained the different types grassland dynamic changing rates, which include...
Research Article

The Assessment of Risk Caused by Fire and Explosion in Chemical Process Industry: A Domino Effect-Based Study

Farid Kadri, Eric Chatelet, Patrick Lallement
Pages: 66 - 76
In the field of risks analysis, the domino effect has been documented in technical literature since 1947. The accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial plants. Fire and explosion are among the most frequent primary accidents for a domino effect due...
Research Article

Research of City Rainstorm Waterlogging Scene Simulation -- in Daoli District of Harbin City as an Example

Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Lingfeng Zhang, Yingyue Sun
Pages: 66 - 72
As global warming urbanization process accelerated, urban waterlogging problem is increasingly serious, has become the research hotspot nowadays. City rainstorm waterlogging scene simulation is one of the important link in the research of the process in which residents shelter when city rainstorm waterlogging...
Review Article

Overview on the Developments and Applications of Hesitant Fuzzy Sets: An Uncertain Decision Making Tool

Bin Zhu, Zeshui Xu
Pages: 67 - 75
Recently, hesitant fuzzy sets perform as an emerging tool in decision making under uncertainty. This paper reviews the main relevant papers, which are published in international academic journals from 2010 to 2016, relating to the interpretations, modellings, and applications of hesitant fuzzy sets....
Research Article

Research on Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Forest and Grassland Fires

Xinghua Li, Wenjie Wu, Dibo Lv, Cunhou Zhang
Pages: 69 - 77
The hazard risk and disaster degree of damage was confirmed about the forest and grassland fire in Inner Mongolia by the occurrence rule of fires, distribution of high temperature points, characteristic of distribution of vegetation types, and the extent of road coverage. Production of risk assessment...