Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

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251 articles

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 1 - 1

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 1 - 1

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 1 - 1

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 1 - 2

Biogas - A European Perspective on Safety and Regulation

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 1 - 20
The production of biogas is positioned as energy which can not only generate a source of energy known as "green" but also which can recycle waste. In the context of sustainable development, the place of biogas is therefore essential. The risks corresponding to the production processes and uses of are...

Geospatial Information Diffusion Technology Supporting by Background Data

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 2 - 10
In this paper, we express the initial concept of geospatial information diffusion supporting by background data, which plays a role as a bridge to diffuse the information carried by the observations, obtained from observed units, to gap units. The self-learning discrete regression, based on the multivariate...

An Approach to Ranking Integrated Models for Risk Assessment by Using the Internet of Intelligences

Weidan Wang, Sen Qiao, Fanlei Zeng, Jun Guo, Chongfu Huang
Pages: 2 - 9
In natural disaster risk assessment, it is referred to as integrated model which is used to integrate information. The statistical model is essentially integrated model. Usually, people try to search the reasons that choose a model from the theory or case. Based on the thinking of experimental riskology,...

BP’s Reputation Repair Strategies during the Gulf Oil Spill

Kristen Alley Swain, Lindsay A. Jordan
Pages: 2 - 15
On April 20, 2010, British Petroleum’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico exploded, creating the largest oil spill in U.S. history. Analysis of 1,161 BP tweets during the crisis response reflected unexpected reputation repair strategies and responsibility attribution. Situational Crisis...

Risk Mitigation in Managing a Mega Project - a Case Study of Gomal Zam Dam Construction Weight and Cloud Model

George Wang, Wei Hu, Colin Duffield
Pages: 2 - 9
Global contractors operate in an environment that has a variety of alternatives and uncertain circumstances that requires constant circumvention and adjustment. It is not uncommon that a contractor conducting an international project does not comprehensively evaluate the local environments and identify...

Volcanic Risk Perception, Locus of Control, Stress and Coping Responses of People Living Near the Popocatépetl Volcano in Mexico

Esperanza López-Vázquez, Maria Luisa Marván
Pages: 3 - 12
The influence of locus of control and stress on coping strategies in relation to volcanic risk were studied in 156 people living near the Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico. The participants with a limited educational background were more likely than those with higher education to use passive coping strategies....

Multicriteria Decision Aid Applications to Support Risk Decisions in the Marine Environment: Locating Suitable Transshipment Areas

Dimitrios I. Stavrou, Nikolaos P. Ventikos
Pages: 3 - 12
The aim of this paper is to develop an MCDA model to support decision makers in the marine environment. The UTASTAR method is employed for the selection of the best area for ship-to-ship transfer of cargo. The method relies on the hypothesis that both the actions and the corresponding criteria interact...

A Fuzzy Method for Assessing Eco-Environmental Disaster Risk Caused by Coalbed Methane in China

Ye Xue, Xiaoxiao Li, Wen Sun, Baozhang Chen
Pages: 3 - 13
Based on an improved risk assessment index system, this paper constructs an eco-environmental disaster risk assessment model during coalbed methane industrialization development in China by using intuitionistic fuzzy sets to describe the uncertain risk information, and the transformed interval value...

Risk Assessment of Radio Frequencies and Public Information

Marc Poumadère, Anne Perrin
Pages: 3 - 12
The rapid, worldwide development of mobile phones is accompanied in many countries by public concern over the possible health risks of radio frequencies (RF). National and international health agencies have undertaken risk assessments, and an in-depth study was recently conducted with the French Agency...

Average Life Expectancy as a Criterion for Regional Risk Management Weight and Cloud Model

Sviatoslav Timashev
Pages: 10 - 19
The paper considers an important and complex interdisciplinary integration problem – providing, supporting and managing safety of interdependent critical infrastructures (ICIs) of a municipal area or region, embedded in the context and realities of modern society of risk. The problem is solved using...

Eutrophication Hazard Evaluation Using Copula-Cloud

Dengfeng Liu, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang
Pages: 10 - 14
A copula-cloud (C-C) coupled framework is proposed with respect to the uncertainty and multi-criteria mapping in water environmental hazard evaluation, with introducing copulas and cloud model theory. In the C-C framework, cloud models are firstly generated with given risk criteria which quantify the...

Study on the Changes of Industrial Structure in Sichuan Province before and after the “5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake”

Dongdong Zhu, Xianhua Wu, Peipei Xue
Pages: 11 - 19
On the 10th anniversary of the “5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake” disaster, what changes have occurred in the industrial structure of Sichuan Province? It is an important topic for government, industry and the public. This paper analyzed the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on various industries in Sichuan Province...

Environmental Pollution and Human Health Risks near a Hazardous Waste Landfill. Temporal Trends

Joaquim Rovira, Montse Mari, Marta Schuhmacher, Martí Nadal, José L. Domingo
Pages: 13 - 20
The human health risk assessment associated to the human exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and metals for the population living near a hazardous waste landfill (HWL) in Catalonia (Spain) is here presented. In summer of 2009 and 2010, two monitoring campaigns were...

Risk Scenes of Managerial Decision-Making with Incomplete Information: An Assessment in Forecasting Models Based on Statistical and Neural Networks Approach

Dusan Marcek
Pages: 13 - 21
The paper is concerned with measuring of risks in managerial decision-making. It builds upon the uncertainty of economic information, which is converted into the concept of risk expressed in terms of probability and using confidence intervals and standard deviations of the predicted quantities. The paper...

Research on Initial Trust Model of Mobile Banking Users

Baolin Sun, Chaohao Sun, Chang Liu, Chao Gui
Pages: 13 - 20
The trust mechanism and trust model of mobile banking is especially urgent because of its high cognitive risk and poor experience. This article studies several key factors that affect the trust mechanism of mobile banking, such as structure assurance, ubiquity, information quality, initial trust, perceived...

The Design of a Drought Weather Index Insurance System for Summer Maize in Anhui Province, China

Ying Xu, Chao Gao, Xuewen Li, Taiming Yang, Xibo Sun, Congcong Wang, De Li
Pages: 14 - 23
We analyzed precipitation anomalies of summer maize in order to establish a drought weather index model that is based on tassel appearance and maturity stage as well as drought yield reduction rate. We utilized daily precipitation data encompassing the period between 1971 and 2010 from 15 agricultural...

Research on the performance evaluation of government venture capital fund based on factor analysis and DEA model

Hong-Mei Zhang, Ya-Zhong Chen, Zhe Wang
Pages: 15 - 20
According to the existing domestic and foreign research results as well as the characteristics of the guide fund, this paper constructs the index system of guide fund performance evaluation, selects the data of the part of the enterprises shared by the government guide venture capital fund and uses the...

Banking Balance Sheet Channel of Systemic Risk

Vincent B.Y. Gan
Pages: 16 - 30
The role of the banking balance sheet as the source and transmitter of systemic risk is explored. We find that the key balance sheet channels of systemic risk are; (i) bank capital structure choice, (ii) interconnectedness and interdependencies among firms, (iii) correlations of asset composition and...

Rapid Assessment of Disaster Loss and Spatial Distribution of Intensity Residuals in Linfen Area

Xiaofei Han, Zihong Li, Jianjie Bo, Xiaoyun Zhao, Shuangshuang Shi
Pages: 20 - 35
Through the probability analysis of seismic hazard analysis, the probability distribution results of different intensity in each township of Linfen area are given. Through analysis, it is concluded that the probability of occurrence of high-intensity impact in the Linfen basin is higher than that of...

On Risk and Disability – Investigating the Influence of Disability and Social Capital on the Perception and Digital Communication of risk

Jörgen Sparf, Susanna Öhman
Pages: 20 - 33
Does living as a disabled person affect how risks are perceived? Studies of various population groups show that not only macro level structures but also micro social contexts and individual conditions influence risk perception. This knowledge is important for formulating, designing, and communicating...

Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives

Xin Song, Li Li, Lei Xiao
Pages: 21 - 26
With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this...

The Effects of the Social Context on Pre-Decisional Processes of Protective Action in Beijing Communities

Tiezhong Liu, Hubo Zhang, Xiaowei Li, Huiru Li
Pages: 21 - 30
This paper examined the effects of the social context (media communication, face-to-face communication, and friend and kinship network) on pre decisional processes of individual protective action. A two-stage survey was carried out aimed at residents in Beijing communities in half a year, and then the...

How Crises Model the Modern World

Patrick Lagadec, Benjamin Topper
Pages: 21 - 33
Crises are our new reality. “Black swans” are increasingly becoming the norm; our systems, environments, contexts are structurally prone to crises. Doing more of the same will not be the appropriate way to deal with modern crises: a paradigm shift is needed, based on a more accurate understanding of...

Risk Indviduality in Crisis Planning: the Case of Gender in Amercan Agriculture

Dana L.K. Hoag, Catherine Keske, Rebecca Goldbach
Pages: 21 - 28
Crisis response can be improved by accounting for differences in risk perception. We confirm that gender individuality can be an important divider by using a case study of agricultural producers. Women were more risk averse and less confident. However, we found less difference than studies have found...

A Risk Assessment Model based on Attribute Theory

Jiali Feng, Tao Sheng
Pages: 22 - 26
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government has invested 4000 billion to maintain the economic growth. And the investment made the inflation became more seriously. However, the investment has led to high inflation rate. To fight inflation, it is important to understand the effects...

Geochemical and Clay-Size Minerals Evidence for the Provenance of LQC Loess Deposits in the Central Shandong, Northern China

Min Ding, Junxiang Zhang, Shuzhen Peng, Wei Zhang, Qiuyue Zhao, Longjiang Mao
Pages: 24 - 34
The identification of the Shandong loess provenance adjacent to the floodplain of the Yellow River external the Loess Plateau is very important for revealing the path of dust accumulation and paleoenvironment, which has aroused widespread concern. In this study, the clay-size(< 5•m) minerals and major...

The Research on Applicability of Amended KMV Model with Different Industries

Yang Yang, Li Li, Zongfang Zhou, Wenying Fei
Pages: 27 - 33
The determination of the default point is the key to applying the KMV model. In the traditional research, the default point is equal to the sum of short term debt and half of the long term debt empirically based on the credit data of American companies. But whether it is fit for the Chinese companies...

A Critical Review on the Economics of Disasters

Xi Yu, Yandong Tang
Pages: 27 - 36
The idea of economics of disasters can be traced back to the mid-19th century. The field of economics of disaster continues to be expand after 1970s and mainly concentrating in the disaster loss assessment methods, disaster economic impact model, the value of life assessments and disaster insurance and...

Fuzzy Multicriteria Risk Assessment for Hazardous Waste Management: The Case of Istanbul

Seda Ugurlu, Cengiz Kahraman
Pages: 29 - 41
A hazardous waste is waste that poses substantial or potential threats to public health or the environment. Hazardous waste management is an area of the waste management field concerned with the proper containment, management, and disposal of wastes which could be considered hazardous. In this paper,...

High-rise Building Group Regional Fire Risk Assessment Model Based on AHP

Wei Zhu, Qiuju You
Pages: 31 - 37
Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a regional fire risk assessment model is developed for high-rise building group considering the fire danger degree, basic characters of the high-rise building group and fire control capability. The impact factors, values of typical risk parameter and the weight...

Non-Diversifiable Risk in Investment Portfolios --- an Aid to Investment Decision Making

Emma Anyika
Pages: 31 - 46
estimators of diversifiable risk and portfolio expected returns to reflect normal market conditions. GARCH (General Auto - Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models are then used to make forecasts of given time series, from which future predictions of Non - Diversifiable risk, Diversifiable risk...

An Operational Drought Risk Management Framework Based on stream-flow Intelligent Internet control

Rongfang Li, Lijun Cheng, Yongsheng Ding, K. Khorasani, Yunxiang Chen, Wei Wang
Pages: 34 - 43
In this paper, an operational drought risk management framework based on the stream-flow intelligent internet control is proposed. In the proposed framework drought can be predicted, evaluated and mitigated by using a dynamic stream-flow control under the sensors detection. The framework mainly includes...

New England Compounding Center Meningitis Outbreak: A Compounding Public Health Crisis

Bolanle A. Olaniran, Juliann C. Scholl
Pages: 34 - 42
The New England Compounding Center’s (i.e., NECC) meningitis outbreak represents a major public health crisis of 2012 that led to over 40 deaths, along with infection of several hundred individuals. The outbreak necessitates the need for how such a crisis could be prevented.. The research focuses on...

Perception of Risks in Nanotechnology: Determining Key Aspects in Chile

J. Pozo, A. Schmessane, A. Pozo, C. Pozo
Pages: 34 - 43
The purpose of this study is to provide preliminary base-line data on public perceptions about the risks associated with nanotechnology. We analyzed the current development of nanotechnology in Chile and the risks associated with the incorporation of this new technology over time, considering the particular...

A Study of Spatial Evolution Patterns of Tourist Destinations Disaster Risks

Yingyue Sun, Qingshan Yang, Peng Chen
Pages: 35 - 42
Due to the strong suddenness, large destruction and wide impact, disasters can cause serious property and safety loss to tourists, damage significantly tourism infrastructure, properties and resources. In order to prevent disaster and to better understand future disaster risk evolution, we have built...

Study on Meteorological Service Policy for Agricultural Insurance in Hebei Province under the Background of Climate Change

Kaicheng Xing, Shujun Guo
Pages: 36 - 42
Hebei Province is a region sensitive to global climate change. Under the background of climate change and frequent extreme climate events, existing agricultural production structure is facing enormous risk of climate disasters. In order to reduce the risk level of agricultural meteorological disasters,...

Optimization of Ventilation and Alarm Setting During the Process of Ammonia Leak in Refrigeration Machinery Room Based on Numerical Simulation

Dongliang Liu, Liang Wang, Tong Wang, Yan Liu, Ya Chen
Pages: 37 - 44
In order to optimize the ventilation effect of ammonia leakage in the refrigeration machinery room, a food processing enterprise is selected as the subject investigated. The velocity and concentration field distribution during the process of ammonia leakage are discussed through simulation of refrigeration...