Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Based on the observed data of precipitation and air temperature in Northern Shaanxi during 1960–2020, the characteristics of precipitation and air temperature at multiple time scales in Northern Shaanxi were analyzed by using CEEMDAN (Adaptive Complete Set Empirical Model) and back propagation neural...

Pandemic crisis management is not something that South Western Railway (SWR) has had to contend with previously. As a result of the introduction of a crisis management approach to the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been able to continue operating and to continue safely serving the needs of its customers....

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered concerns about the global food crisis, thus identification of food security risks constitutes an important basis for responding to the influence of the pandemic. In this study, the influence path of the pandemic on food security was analyzed first. Then, the risk nodes...

We predict the magnitude and estimate the uncertainties of the spread, growth and maximum expected long-term infection rates that affect emergency policies and plans. For the COVID-19 and 1918 viral pandemics, large second or successive peaks, waves or plateaux of increased infections occur long after...

The production of biogas is positioned as energy which can not only generate a source of energy known as "green" but also which can recycle waste. In the context of sustainable development, the place of biogas is therefore essential. The risks corresponding to the production processes and uses of are...

There is a high intensity and frequency of earthquake occurrence in Tianshui and its surrounding areas and it is very important to study on the historical strong earthquakes occurred in that area for knowing about the seismicity and earthquake risk prevention. This paper proposed an elliptical intensity...

The strategy of investing large-scale tourism projects abroad has become one of the most important strategies for China to help developing countries to improve their people’s livelihood, provide assistance and practice China’s international responsibility. The proposal and implementation of the Belt...

Global contractors operate in an environment that has a variety of alternatives and uncertain circumstances that requires constant circumvention and adjustment. It is not uncommon that a contractor conducting an international project does not comprehensively evaluate the local environments and identify...

On April 20, 2010, British Petroleum’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico exploded, creating the largest oil spill in U.S. history. Analysis of 1,161 BP tweets during the crisis response reflected unexpected reputation repair strategies and responsibility attribution. Situational Crisis...

In natural disaster risk assessment, it is referred to as integrated model which is used to integrate information. The statistical model is essentially integrated model. Usually, people try to search the reasons that choose a model from the theory or case. Based on the thinking of experimental riskology,...

In this paper, we express the initial concept of geospatial information diffusion supporting by background data, which plays a role as a bridge to diffuse the information carried by the observations, obtained from observed units, to gap units. The self-learning discrete regression, based on the multivariate...

The aim of this paper is to develop an MCDA model to support decision makers in the marine environment. The UTASTAR method is employed for the selection of the best area for ship-to-ship transfer of cargo. The method relies on the hypothesis that both the actions and the corresponding criteria interact...

The influence of locus of control and stress on coping strategies in relation to volcanic risk were studied in 156 people living near the Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico. The participants with a limited educational background were more likely than those with higher education to use passive coping strategies....

The rapid, worldwide development of mobile phones is accompanied in many countries by public concern over the possible health risks of radio frequencies (RF). National and international health agencies have undertaken risk assessments, and an in-depth study was recently conducted with the French Agency...

Based on an improved risk assessment index system, this paper constructs an eco-environmental disaster risk assessment model during coalbed methane industrialization development in China by using intuitionistic fuzzy sets to describe the uncertain risk information, and the transformed interval value...

Many businesses make profit yearly and tend to invest some of the profit so that they can cushion their organizations against any future unknown events that can affect their current profit making. Since future happenings in businesses cannot be predicted accurately, estimates are made using experience...

The paper considers an important and complex interdisciplinary integration problem – providing, supporting and managing safety of interdependent critical infrastructures (ICIs) of a municipal area or region, embedded in the context and realities of modern society of risk. The problem is solved using...

A copula-cloud (C-C) coupled framework is proposed with respect to the uncertainty and multi-criteria mapping in water environmental hazard evaluation, with introducing copulas and cloud model theory. In the C-C framework, cloud models are firstly generated with given risk criteria which quantify the...

After thousands of years of exposure to the elements, the Mount Tai stone inscriptions have been damaged to varying degrees. As immovable cultural relics, they are inseparable from their surrounding environment, and therefore continue to face numerous risks and safety hazards. Several spatial information...

On the 10th anniversary of the “5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake” disaster, what changes have occurred in the industrial structure of Sichuan Province? It is an important topic for government, industry and the public. This paper analyzed the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on various industries in Sichuan Province...

Although tunnels provide roads with numerous advantages, they also include significant risks. Especially, fire accidents are the biggest threats. Nowadays, risk assessment has the predominant role for managing tunnel fire safety and users are in the centre of attention. However, existing methods exhibit...

The trust mechanism and trust model of mobile banking is especially urgent because of its high cognitive risk and poor experience. This article studies several key factors that affect the trust mechanism of mobile banking, such as structure assurance, ubiquity, information quality, initial trust, perceived...

The human health risk assessment associated to the human exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and metals for the population living near a hazardous waste landfill (HWL) in Catalonia (Spain) is here presented. In summer of 2009 and 2010, two monitoring campaigns were...

The paper is concerned with measuring of risks in managerial decision-making. It builds upon the uncertainty of economic information, which is converted into the concept of risk expressed in terms of probability and using confidence intervals and standard deviations of the predicted quantities. The paper...

We analyzed precipitation anomalies of summer maize in order to establish a drought weather index model that is based on tassel appearance and maturity stage as well as drought yield reduction rate. We utilized daily precipitation data encompassing the period between 1971 and 2010 from 15 agricultural...

According to the existing domestic and foreign research results as well as the characteristics of the guide fund, this paper constructs the index system of guide fund performance evaluation, selects the data of the part of the enterprises shared by the government guide venture capital fund and uses the...

The role of the banking balance sheet as the source and transmitter of systemic risk is explored. We find that the key balance sheet channels of systemic risk are; (i) bank capital structure choice, (ii) interconnectedness and interdependencies among firms, (iii) correlations of asset composition and...

The development of Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI), which matches that people get old before becoming rich lag behind. The mega-urban agglomeration formed in the metropolitan area under the process of urbanization intensifies the demand for insurance driven by long-term care needs. This paper constructs...

In recent years, the credit crisis of Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd., (HNA), Suntech, Bogang, Dunan, Chengxing and other enterprises, as well as the fact that many enterprises and financial institutions in the supply chain suffer heavy losses caused by the credit crisis, make the associated credit...

Does living as a disabled person affect how risks are perceived? Studies of various population groups show that not only macro level structures but also micro social contexts and individual conditions influence risk perception. This knowledge is important for formulating, designing, and communicating...

Through the probability analysis of seismic hazard analysis, the probability distribution results of different intensity in each township of Linfen area are given. Through analysis, it is concluded that the probability of occurrence of high-intensity impact in the Linfen basin is higher than that of...

This paper examined the effects of the social context (media communication, face-to-face communication, and friend and kinship network) on pre decisional processes of individual protective action. A two-stage survey was carried out aimed at residents in Beijing communities in half a year, and then the...

Crisis response can be improved by accounting for differences in risk perception. We confirm that gender individuality can be an important divider by using a case study of agricultural producers. Women were more risk averse and less confident. However, we found less difference than studies have found...

Crises are our new reality. “Black swans” are increasingly becoming the norm; our systems, environments, contexts are structurally prone to crises. Doing more of the same will not be the appropriate way to deal with modern crises: a paradigm shift is needed, based on a more accurate understanding of...

With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this...

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government has invested 4000 billion to maintain the economic growth. And the investment made the inflation became more seriously. However, the investment has led to high inflation rate. To fight inflation, it is important to understand the effects...

On February 2020, the Diamond Princess Cruise, which left Japan, was obliged to stay at sea for 14 days-quarantine after it was found that a Hong Kong passenger had been diagnosed SARS-COV2 pneumonia after disembarking. As a result shocked the world, an outbreak of infection occurred on board; the number...

The identification of the Shandong loess provenance adjacent to the floodplain of the Yellow River external the Loess Plateau is very important for revealing the path of dust accumulation and paleoenvironment, which has aroused widespread concern. In this study, the clay-size(< 5•m) minerals and major...

The public’s awareness of climate change risks is the basis for their choice of adaptation action. A good understanding of the key factors that affect the public’s perception of climate change risk is critical to climate change risk management. In this paper, a path model was constructed to analyze the...

The idea of economics of disasters can be traced back to the mid-19th century. The field of economics of disaster continues to be expand after 1970s and mainly concentrating in the disaster loss assessment methods, disaster economic impact model, the value of life assessments and disaster insurance and...

The determination of the default point is the key to applying the KMV model. In the traditional research, the default point is equal to the sum of short term debt and half of the long term debt empirically based on the credit data of American companies. But whether it is fit for the Chinese companies...

Aiming at the problem of victim’s rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in major natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim’s psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...

A hazardous waste is waste that poses substantial or potential threats to public health or the environment. Hazardous waste management is an area of the waste management field concerned with the proper containment, management, and disposal of wastes which could be considered hazardous. In this paper,...

estimators of diversifiable risk and portfolio expected returns to reflect normal market conditions. GARCH (General Auto - Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models are then used to make forecasts of given time series, from which future predictions of Non - Diversifiable risk, Diversifiable risk...

Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a regional fire risk assessment model is developed for high-rise building group considering the fire danger degree, basic characters of the high-rise building group and fire control capability. The impact factors, values of typical risk parameter and the weight...

The New England Compounding Center’s (i.e., NECC) meningitis outbreak represents a major public health crisis of 2012 that led to over 40 deaths, along with infection of several hundred individuals. The outbreak necessitates the need for how such a crisis could be prevented.. The research focuses on...

The purpose of this study is to provide preliminary base-line data on public perceptions about the risks associated with nanotechnology. We analyzed the current development of nanotechnology in Chile and the risks associated with the incorporation of this new technology over time, considering the particular...

In this paper, an operational drought risk management framework based on the stream-flow intelligent internet control is proposed. In the proposed framework drought can be predicted, evaluated and mitigated by using a dynamic stream-flow control under the sensors detection. The framework mainly includes...

Due to the strong suddenness, large destruction and wide impact, disasters can cause serious property and safety loss to tourists, damage significantly tourism infrastructure, properties and resources. In order to prevent disaster and to better understand future disaster risk evolution, we have built...

Hebei Province is a region sensitive to global climate change. Under the background of climate change and frequent extreme climate events, existing agricultural production structure is facing enormous risk of climate disasters. In order to reduce the risk level of agricultural meteorological disasters,...

We take Shaanxi Province as the research area, aiming at exploring the information channel or path of climate change risk perception of Shaanxi people. It is desirable for us to carry out information channel or path classification of climate change risk perception based on survey data involving 5493...

In order to optimize the ventilation effect of ammonia leakage in the refrigeration machinery room, a food processing enterprise is selected as the subject investigated. The velocity and concentration field distribution during the process of ammonia leakage are discussed through simulation of refrigeration...

In the current complex and uncertainty of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, the elderly in the long-term care facilities are at the highest risk of being affected by COVID-19. There is still uncertain relationship between the identification of this risk and the care management, caring...

The healthy development of insurance industry influenced the stability of country's financial system. In recent years, the insurance industry has developed rapidly in China, but also hid the huge risks in it. As the economic growth rate slow down, China’s insurance industry may also encounter with crisis...

This study was aimed at determining the levels of natural uranium (U) in air samples collected in the surroundings of various industrial facilities: three cement plants, two municipal solid waste incinerators, and a hazardous waste landfill in Catalonia (NE Spain). Although U concentrations were found...

The principal aim of this paper is to introduce the framework for a cooperative game theoretical approach to risk analysis using network structure. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is a common methodology for evaluating risks associated with real-world network structure. Although there are numerous...

Urban waterlogging disaster represented a serious threat to the residents and the traffic. For the purpose of drilling, the wargame excise is introduced to the residents’ emergency evacuation in urban waterlogging disaster. As an essential component of wargame, the chessboard (map) is an important tool...

Based on the public’s cognition, evaluation and expectation of rainstorm warning information in Beijing, the descriptive statistics and non-parametric test methods were used for data analysis. The results show that more than 80% of the public can recognize the importance of rainstorm warning, but only...

It is easy to write a story about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) when everything about COVID-19 is known. It is difficult to analyze the death risks of COVID-19 with a few evidences collected before and at the beginning of the outbreak. In this paper, we suggest a hybrid model to analyze the...

In recent years, there has been an increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, such as typhoons, landslides, earthquakes, etc., now killing and injuring millions of people every year and causing mounting economic losses. The greater tragedy is that many of the losses due to disasters could...

Today, people mainly consider credit risks from view of powerful players. The role of the Internet in the credit risk management is not fully. In this paper, we have a comprehensive look at the credit risks, so that, suggest two concepts: binary credit risk and triad credit risk. The Internet of intelligences...

paper aims at working out analysis model of risk coupling for rural tourism safety accidents. First, based on the regional environmental risk system theory, the rural tourism safety system is analyzed. Second, under the four dimension of man, machine, environment, and management, the diamond model is...

This paper proposes a novel hybrid algorithm based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm and Nelder-Mead (NM) simplex search method for continuous optimization problems, abbreviated as QPSO-NM. This hybrid algorithm is very easy to be implemented since it does not require continuity...

Flood is a perennial problem in the state of Bihar, India with devastating impact on the livelihood of people. In spite of the government’s measures of flood mitigation, households continue to live with sufferings on account of severe damage to their material and non-material assets. In this background,...

The traditional actuarial model of catastrophe insurance is too theoretical. In many cases, it is of no avail. In this paper, we suggest a discrete model of catastrophe insurance to calculate the expected losses. We successfully applied it to calculate the premium rate of the typhoon in Fujian Province,...

Risk assessment and risk matrices are powered tools used in risk management and help guide in the process of decision-making in organisations. Nevertheless, risk matrices have their own weaknesses and strengths. This paper provides a critical overview of the development and use of risk matrices in different...

The related data analysis of China and USA shows that the work-related injuries are closely related to the proportion of each industry. High-incidence period is often in the period when the proportion of the secondary industry rises. Increasing proportion of the tertiary industry does good to decrease...

This paper selects the 50 state-level poverty-stricken counties in Guizhou province as the research object, and uses financial scale, financial efficiency and financial structure to represent the level of financial development in each county, using economic growth and income distribution as controlled...

This paper took the northwest of Liaoning Province as a study area and maize as the research object. Effective rainfall, crop water requirement and soil available water content at 6 growth stages of maize were calculated by using Penman-Montes equation, effective coefficient method and Cropland Soil...

In large public infrastructure projects, political risks due to the power imbalance between central and delivery agencies are often overlooked or underestimated. The primary motive of the delivery agency in distorting information for political gains should be deemed a risk that creates uncertainty for...

In this paper, the evolution and control of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease will be analyzed and studied. Firstly, the evolution chain of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease is constructed to analyze the evolution rule of society risks and identify...

Explosion accidents usually lead to serious fatality and disability. To investigate the patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents (FEA), a database containing 1835 FEA that happened in China during 2001–2018 was built. Statistical analysis was made based on the year, month, time interval of day, day of week,...

Loan guarantees between parent and subsidiary is the main related transaction in business group, its correct estimation is the foundation of controlling group’s credit risk. Applying option theory, this paper researches the vulnerable option characters of loan guarantees, gives the valuation model under...

Technological progress—especially in the realms of information processing, communication, transportation, commerce and distribution of energy—is leading to an accelerated growth in interdependence on all levels of modern society. A well-known result in systems analysis is that highly interdependent large-scale...

The fog probability in urban area is determined by the observatory data. Taking the regular grid to be the assessed unit, the Fragility Exponential (FE) is computed upon the gird cell, in which the density of the road-net is stood for, and the FE can be modified according to the important facility distributed...

Natural disaster risk assessment is one of the hot fields of the study of natural disaster. It is of theoretical and practical significance to accurately identify the trend of natural disasters. Not all the natural disaster has the quality of spatial symmetry, only some disasters during some certain...

In this study, we define a multiple Internet of intelligences (M-IOI) as the processing of homological information in layers. If agents in an M-IOI not only provide information in response to a question asked by a customer but also review information from other agents and summarize it, we refer to this...

This article collected 199 cases of domestic natural gas pipeline leakage accidents, and used the mathematical methods and SPSS statistical analysis software to analysis these accident cases. Based on the analysis of accidents statistics and disaster reduction factors, the natural gas pipeline risk rating...

Although the Nepalese Army’s regular infantry troops are the tools of disaster response their competency at times becomes questionable. Their disaster response’s soft skill knowledge, technical skill knowledge and preparedness activities along with the perception of senior army officers have been analyzed....