Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 43 - 53

Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information1

Authors
Chongfu Huang*
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Faculty of Geographical Science, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Corresponding Author
Chongfu Huang
Received 19 April 2020, Accepted 19 June 2020, Available Online 15 July 2020.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200709.002How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Coronavirus, death risk, evidence, experience, internet of intelligences, set-valued statistics
Abstract

It is easy to write a story about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) when everything about COVID-19 is known. It is difficult to analyze the death risks of COVID-19 with a few evidences collected before and at the beginning of the outbreak. In this paper, we suggest a hybrid model to analyze the death risk under incomplete information. The hybrid model would be supported by the internet of intelligences, being a platform interacting with infectious disease specialists and local doctors who fuse the evidences with the experience of the known infectious diseases and provide a series of judgments related to the death risk of a human population in a given period to COVID-19. The hybrid model consists of two models of set-valued statistics and a formula. The set-valued statistics integrate the judgments for constructing (1) a probability distribution of the percent of patients, as the exposure of the population, and (2) a mortality curve with respect to the percent, as the vulnerability of the population. The suggested formula calculates the expected value of death toll. We give a virtual case to show how to use the hybrid model.

Copyright
© 2020 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Journal
Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Volume-Issue
10 - 2
Pages
43 - 53
Publication Date
2020/07
ISSN (Online)
2210-8505
ISSN (Print)
2210-8491
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200709.002How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2020 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chongfu Huang
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/07
TI  - Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information1
JO  - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
SP  - 43
EP  - 53
VL  - 10
IS  - 2
SN  - 2210-8505
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200709.002
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200709.002
ID  - Huang2020
ER  -