Journal of African Trade

Latest Articles

Trade and Industrialisation in Africa: SMEs, Manufacturing and Cluster Dynamics

Raphael Kaplinsky, Mike Morris
In Press, Uncorrected Proof, Available Online: 6 September 2019
Trade in manufacturing through global and regional value chains has played an especially prominent role in global economic growth in recent decades. However, Africa faces severe challenges in growing manufacturing activities in the face of China and Southeast Asia’s competitive dominance of global manufactured...

The Impact of Regional Integration on Africa’s Manufacturing Exports

Rodgers Mukwaya
In Press, Uncorrected Proof, Available Online: 25 July 2019
This paper analyses the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on manufactured exports in Africa, controlling for endogeneity of RTA. Using data from 1990 to 2015 for 45 African countries, a structural gravity model was estimated using the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator that controlled...

How Do Trade Margins Respond to Exchange Rate? The Case of Egypt✩

Chahir Zaki, Alia Abdallah, May Sami
In Press, Corrected Proof, Available Online: 18 June 2019
This paper examines the effect of the exchange rate devaluation on the quantity and value of exports (intensive margin of trade), as well as the ability to export new products and/or venture into new export markets (extensive margin of trade). Using monthly firm-level and sector-level data for the period...

How well does observable trade data measure trade friction costs? Evidence from member countries within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

Festus Ebo Turkson
Volume 5, Issue 1-2, December 2018, Pages 69-86
This paper is an empirical application of the micro-founded measure of trade costs by Head and Mayer (2004) and Novy (2013). The derived micro-founded measure, consistent with the Ricardian and heterogeneous firm’s models of trade, captures all trade costs components that hitherto have been impossible...

Oil prices and African stock markets co-movement: A time and frequency analysis

Grakolet Arnold Zamereith Gourène, Pierre Mendy
Volume 5, Issue 1-2, December 2018, Pages 55-67
This paper examines the co-movement between OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil prices and the six largest African stock markets. We used wavelet coherence to analyze the evolution of this relationship both in time and by frequency. Our results show that the co-movement between African...

Trade facilitation and social welfare in Africa☆

Daniel Sakyi, Isaac Bonuedi, Eric Evans Osei Opoku
Volume 5, Issue 1-2, December 2018, Pages 35-53
Improving social welfare in the developing world remains a top priority on the global development agenda, as policymakers and international development partners worldwide strive to meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Using data on 40 African countries over the period 2010–2015, this paper...

Trade dependence, liberalization, and exports diversification in developing countries☆

Patrick N. Osakwe, Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, Berna Dogan
Volume 5, Issue 1-2, December 2018, Pages 19-34
This paper explores the relationship between trade, trade liberalization, and exports diversification in developing and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The non-parametric analyses indicate that developing countries that are more open to trade (based on trade intensity) tend to have more diversified...

The consequences of Brexit for Africa: The case of the East African Community☆

Andrew Mold
Volume 5, Issue 1-2, December 2018, Pages 1-17
How will Brexit impact on Africa? This paper looks at the available empirical evidence and carries out a Computable General Equilibrium simulation, focusing particularly on the prospects for the East African Community (EAC). The paper makes three main points. First, while the direct impacts through investment,...

Understanding crude oil import demand behaviour in Africa: The Ghana case

George Marbuah
Volume 4, Issue 1-2, December 2017, Pages 75-87
As in many African countries, crude oil importation is a major drain on the economy of Ghana. We estimate short-run and long-run import demand models for crude oil using data over the period 1980–2012. Results show that demand for crude oil is price inelastic in the short-run but elastic in the long-run....

Foreign direct investment, productivity and the technology gap in African economies

Christopher Malikane, Prosper Chitambara
Volume 4, Issue 1-2, December 2017, Pages 61-74
This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity conditional on relative backwardness in a panel of 45 African countries over the period 1980–2012. We use two measures of relative backwardness, namely: the distance from technological frontier and the income...

Aid for trade and Africa’s trade performance: Evidence from bilateral trade flows with China and OECD countries☆

Adugna Lemi
Volume 4, Issue 1-2, December 2017, Pages 37-60
The optimism surrounding aid for trade (AfT) led scholars and practitioners to probe its link with trade performance of aid-recipient countries in Africa. In the absence of formal evaluation guidelines, most previous studies, using aggregate data, have looked into the impacts of AfT on exports and imports...

Effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in Sub-Saharan Africa☆

Bernardin Senadza, Desmond Delali Diaba
Volume 4, Issue 1-2, December 2017, Pages 20-36
The volatile nature of exchange rates with the advent of floating regimes has received much attention in economic research. The volatility is generally perceived as negatively affecting international trade. While theoretical predictions and empirical outcomes appear mixed, the balance seems to tilt in...

Export market destination and performance: Firm-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa☆

Ousmanou Njikam
Volume 4, Issue 1-2, December 2017, Pages 1-19
This paper uses a novel manufacturing firm-level survey data in 19 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to explore the linkages among a number of export-market destinations (e.g., China, India, other Asia, EU, US, MENA, SSA excluding South Africa, and South Africa) and performance. The paper also examines...

Structural change and industrial policy: A case study of Ethiopia’s leather sector

Michael Mbate
Volume 3, Issue 1-2, December 2016, Pages 85-100
Recent empirical evidence underscores the vital role of industrial development in fostering structural change and promoting a country’s long-run development objectives. Devising sound industrial policy institutions emerges as a key policy option to promote the reallocation of human, physical and financial...

Modelling the economic impact of the tripartite free trade area: Its implications for the economic geography of Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa☆

Andrew Mold, Rodgers Mukwaya
Volume 3, Issue 1-2, December 2016, Pages 57-84
This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the TFTA on...

Trade and economic growth in developing countries: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Pam Zahonogo
Volume 3, Issue 1-2, December 2016, Pages 41-56
This study investigates how trade openness affects economic growth in developing countries, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We use a dynamic growth model with data from 42 SSA countries covering 1980 to 2012. We employ the Pooled Mean Group estimation technique, which is appropriate for drawing...

Trade facilitation and trade participation: Are sub-Saharan African firms different?☆

Abdoulaye Seck
Volume 3, Issue 1-2, December 2016, Pages 23-39
Sub-Saharan Africa is the region where firms face the greatest hurdles when it comes to cross-border trading. This paper examines how these firms, relative to their counterparts in the developing world, would respond to changes in the trade environment as a result of trade facilitation reforms. Using...

Infrastructure, trade facilitation, and network connectivity in Sub-Saharan Africa☆,☆☆

Ben Shepherd
Volume 3, Issue 1-2, December 2016, Pages 1-22
This paper uses new measures of value added in exports in two sectors (textiles and clothing, and agriculture) to examine the linkages between trade facilitation and infrastructure on the one hand, and value chain participation on the other. It applies network analysis methods to derive a summary measure...

Sovereign bond issues: Do African countries pay more to borrow?☆

Michael Olabisi, Howard Stein
Volume 2, Issue 1-2, December 2015, Pages 87-109
There is a new wave of external borrowing by African governments on private sovereign bond markets. The findings in this paper indicate that African economies pay higher-than-normal coupon rates on these markets; observed risk measures like agency ratings and debt to GDP ratios do not explain the deviation...

Differential effects of trade on economic growth and investment: A cross-country empirical investigation☆

Maureen Were
Volume 2, Issue 1-2, December 2015, Pages 71-85
The paper empirically examines the differential effects of trade on economic growth and investment based on cross-country data. In general, the results are largely consistent with the positive impact of trade on economic growth as found in the literature. However, the empirical results based on different...

Who profits from trade facilitation initiatives? Implications for African countries☆

Bernard Hoekman, Ben Shepherd
Volume 2, Issue 1-2, December 2015, Pages 51-70
Extensive research has demonstrated the existence of large potential welfare gains from measures to facilitate trade — reduce trade costs — for African countries in particular. However, concerns have been expressed by policymakers regarding the distribution of the benefits and costs of trade facilitation....

The potential for internal trade and regional integration in Africa

Alemayehu Geda, Edris Hussein Seid
Volume 2, Issue 1-2, December 2015, Pages 19-50
This study examines the potential for intra-Africa trade and the prospects of advancing regional economic integration through such trade. A variety of empirical models are deployed for the purpose. The analysis and model simulation results reveal the existence of significant potential for intra-Africa...

The impact of HIV/AIDS on foreign direct investment: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Elizabeth Asiedu, Yi Jin, Isaac K. Kanyama
Volume 2, Issue 1-2, December 2015, Pages 1-17
We construct a theoretical model that examines the relationship between HIV/AIDS and foreign direct investment and employ panel data from 41 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to test the implications of the model. We find that HIV/AIDS has a negative but diminishing effect on FDI. Furthermore, the...

On the accuracy of trade and GDP statistics in Africa: Errors of commission and omission

Morten Jerven
Volume 1, Issue 1-2, December 2014, Pages 45-52
African trade statistics suffer from errors of commission and omission. A quarter-century ago, Alexander Yeats (1990) compared receipts of importers and exporters and concluded that the data could not be used to determine the magnitude, direction, or composition of trade. The only fact to be safely deduced...

Attracting international private finance for African infrastructure☆

Paul Collier
Volume 1, Issue 1-2, December 2014, Pages 37-44
Africa’s trade is impeded by poor infrastructure. Inadequate transport infrastructure raises costs analogous to trade barriers, while inadequate power discourages investment. Yet Africa’s infrastructure needs greatly exceed its capacity to finance them. There is therefore a need, and an opportunity,...