Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Latest Articles

Research Article

Research on Public Health Security Risk Management and Emergency Response Measures under Climate Change

Xing Kaicheng, Li Hongyu, Ma Guihong, Jing Yuanyuan, Yang Ming, Huang Dapeng
In Press, Corrected Proof, Available Online: 5 August 2020
Climate change, characterized by global warming, has a wider and deeper impact on society, economy and life. Climate change is an important cause of human health and the spread of infectious diseases. The explosiveness and uncertainty of the epidemic of infectious diseases pose a huge threat to human...
Research Article

Patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents in China

Lei Pang, Zhiwen Zhang, Kai Yang, Pengfei Lv, Siheng Sun
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 54-63
Explosion accidents usually lead to serious fatality and disability. To investigate the patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents (FEA), a database containing 1835 FEA that happened in China during 2001–2018 was built. Statistical analysis was made based on the year, month, time interval of day, day of week,...

Introduction for Volume 10, Issue 2

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages i-i
Research Article

Research on the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 Risk in Long-term Care Facilities based on Prospect Theory

Fengying Zhang, Jianhui Kong, Xiaofeng Xie, Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 37-42
In the current complex and uncertainty of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, the elderly in the long-term care facilities are at the highest risk of being affected by COVID-19. There is still uncertain relationship between the identification of this risk and the care management, caring...
Research Article

A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects

Mu Zhang, Xiao-nan Huang, Chang-bing Yang
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 69-76
In reality, there are so-called holiday effects in the sales of many consumer goods, and their sales data have the characteristics of double trend change of time series. In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the consumer...
Research Article

Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information1

Chongfu Huang
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 43-53
It is easy to write a story about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) when everything about COVID-19 is known. It is difficult to analyze the death risks of COVID-19 with a few evidences collected before and at the beginning of the outbreak. In this paper, we suggest a hybrid model to analyze the...
Research Article

An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree

Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘, Hang 航 Li 李, Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 64-68
The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly...

Research on the Contagion Mechanism of Associated Credit Risk in the Supply Chain

Xiaofeng Xie, Yang Yang, Jing Gu, Zongfang Zhou
Volume 10, Issue 1, April 2020, Pages 19-22
In recent years, the credit crisis of Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd., (HNA), Suntech, Bogang, Dunan, Chengxing and other enterprises, as well as the fact that many enterprises and financial institutions in the supply chain suffer heavy losses caused by the credit crisis, make the associated credit...
Research Article

Discussing the Need to Manage Uncertainty Relating to Users in Road Tunnel Fire Risk Assessment

Panagiotis Ntzeremes, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos, Vrassidas Leopoulos
Volume 10, Issue 1, April 2020, Pages 12-18
Although tunnels provide roads with numerous advantages, they also include significant risks. Especially, fire accidents are the biggest threats. Nowadays, risk assessment has the predominant role for managing tunnel fire safety and users are in the centre of attention. However, existing methods exhibit...
Research Article

Risk Analysis and Crisis Management of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19✩

Weixi 徐 Xu 未希, Xuanhua 徐 Xu 选华
In Press, Corrected Proof, Available Online: 27 April 2020
After the outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia, all regions have responded to take measures. Emergency decision-making plays an important role, directly related to the safety of the people, and more deeply will affect the future of the country. In this paper, we try to use the wisdom of large groups...
Research Article

Review the Parameters of Historical Strong Earthquakes in Tianshui and Its Surrounding Areas

Wu 吴 Qing 清
Volume 10, Issue 1, April 2020, Pages 1-5
There is a high intensity and frequency of earthquake occurrence in Tianshui and its surrounding areas and it is very important to study on the historical strong earthquakes occurred in that area for knowing about the seismicity and earthquake risk prevention. This paper proposed an elliptical intensity...
Research Article

Kernel Density Estimation of White Noise for Non-diversifiable Risk in Decision Making

Emma Anyika Shileche, Patrick Weke, Thomas Achia
Volume 10, Issue 1, April 2020, Pages 6-11
Many businesses make profit yearly and tend to invest some of the profit so that they can cushion their organizations against any future unknown events that can affect their current profit making. Since future happenings in businesses cannot be predicted accurately, estimates are made using experience...
Research Article

The Diamond Princess Cruise: An Accidentally Experimental Model of COVID-19

Liyuan 里远 Liu 刘
Volume 10, Issue 1, April 2020, Pages 23-25
On February 2020, the Diamond Princess Cruise, which left Japan, was obliged to stay at sea for 14 days-quarantine after it was found that a Hong Kong passenger had been diagnosed SARS-COV2 pneumonia after disembarking. As a result shocked the world, an outbreak of infection occurred on board; the number...

Introduction for Volume 10, Issue 1

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Volume 10, Issue 1, April 2020, Pages i-i
Research Article

Study on Mutation Mechanism of Victim’s Psychological Behavior State after Major Natural Disasters

Xuanhua Xu, Yushi Liu, Zitao Zhang
Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 27-36
Aiming at the problem of victim’s rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in major natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim’s psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...
Review Article

Summary of Intelligent Guidance System for Fire Emergency Evacuation in Large Buildings

Xiangzhi 相至 Meng 孟, Rongmei 荣梅 Guo 郭, Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
Volume 9, Issue 4, January 2020, Pages 194-202
With the continuous development of the social economy and the deepening of urbanization, large buildings are increasing, and disaster risks associated with large buildings, such as fire risks, are also increasing. Because of large buildings, such as shopping malls, business offices, transportation hubs...
Research Article

Meteorological Risk Assessment of Rooftop Solar Resource Development in Inner Mongolia

Yanan 胡 Hu 亚男, Xinghua 李 Li 兴华
Volume 9, Issue 4, January 2020, Pages 177-184
Due to the long and narrow regional characteristics of Inner Mongolia, there are obvious climatic differences between the east and the west, and various meteorological factors have different influences on the development and utilization of solar energy. The abundance and stability index of solar energy...

Introduction for Volume 9, Issue 4

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Volume 9, Issue 4, January 2020, Pages 203-203
Research Article

Interannual Variation and Hazard Analysis of Meteorological Disasters in East China

Jun Shi, Linli Cui, Zhongping Shen
Volume 9, Issue 4, January 2020, Pages 168-176
Based on the historical data of meteorological disasters in East China during 2004–2015, the overall characteristics, interannual variations and the hazards of meteorological disasters in different provinces of East China were analyzed. The results indicated that flood disaster (including landslide and...
Research Article

The Harmonious Development of Big Data Industry and Financial Agglomeration in Guizhou

Junmeng Lu, Mu Zhang
Volume 9, Issue 4, January 2020, Pages 163-167
It has important practical and theoretical significance to study the coupling relationship and coordinated development between big data industry and financial agglomeration. This paper used 2015 cross-section data, the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the intuitionistic fuzzy number score...
Research Article

Prospects of Guizhou Province’s Ecological Agriculture Benefit Evaluation Index System

Jian He, Hongmei Zhang
Volume 9, Issue 4, January 2020, Pages 185-193
Ecological agriculture is a major reform in the history of world agriculture. The study of ecological agriculture benefits is of great significance to the development of ecological agriculture. In this paper, by referring to the evaluation index system of ecological agriculture at home and abroad, and...
Research Article

Re-examining Political Risk Assessments in Volatile Regions

Ghaidaa Hetou
Volume 9, Issue 3, October 2019, Pages 123-127
Conventional country risk and political risk indexes, to formalize the process, have attempted to standardize and generalize assessment models for factors that are highly context specific. Hence, the value derived from traditional political risk indexes lack precision and are therefore less reliable....
Research Article

A Critique of Pandemic Catastrophe Modeling

Daniel J. Rozell
Volume 9, Issue 3, October 2019, Pages 128-133
Catastrophe modeling is a popular risk assessment tool for the insurance industry and has been applied to a variety of natural disaster events. More recently, catastrophe modeling techniques have been extended to events, such as pandemics, where the range of possible scenarios is less understood due...
Research Article

Exploration of Risk Oriented Fund Performance Audit—Take Rural Endowment Insurance as an Example

Ronggang Zhang, Lanzhihao Liu
Volume 9, Issue 3, October 2019, Pages 149-154
The performance audit risk of rural pension fund is worth studying deeply. Based on the cost-benefit principle and the public fiduciary economic responsibility theory, this paper analyzes the current situation and causes of the performance audit of rural pension fund and finds that the audit demand degree...