Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health

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Volume 8, Issue 1-2, December 2018, Pages 29 - 33

Seasonal Activity of Influenza in Iran: Application of Influenza-like Illness Data from Sentinel Sites of Healthcare Centers during 2010 to 2015

Authors
Seyedhadi Hosseini1, Manoochehr Karami1, 2, *, Maryam Farhadian3, Younes Mohammadi4
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
2Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
3Modeling of Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
4Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
* Corresponding author. Email: ma.karami@umsha.ac.ir
Received 21 December 2017, Accepted 21 June 2018, Available Online 31 December 2018.
DOI
10.2991/j.jegh.2018.08.100How to use a DOI?
Keywords
CUSUM; influenza; Iran; outbreak; public health surveillance
Abstract

This study aimed to predict seasonal influenza activity and detection of influenza outbreaks. Data of all registered cases (n = 53,526) of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) from sentinel sites of healthcare centers in Iran were obtained from the FluNet web-based tool, World Health Organization (WHO), from 2010 to 2015. The status of the ILI activity was obtained from the FluNet and considered as the gold standard of the seasonal activity of influenza during the study period. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) as an outbreak detection method was used to predict the seasonal activity of influenza. Also, time series similarity between the ILI trend and CUSUM was assessed using the cross-correlogram. Of 7684 (14%) positive cases of influenza, about 71% were type A virus and 28% were type B virus. The majority of the outbreaks occurred in winter and autumn. Results of the cross-correlogram showed that there was a considerable similarity between time series graphs of the ILI cases and CUSUM values. However, the CUSUM algorithm did not have a good performance in the timely detection of influenza activity. Despite a considerable similarity between time series of the ILI cases and CUSUM algorithm in weekly lag, the seasonal activity of influenza in Iran could not be predicted by the CUSUM algorithm.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • •

    Activity of influenza in Iran could not be predicted by CUSUM algorithm.

  • •

    The majority of the outbreaks occurred in winter and autumn.

  • •

    CUSUM algorithm did not have a good performance in detection of influenza outbreaks.

Copyright
© 2018 Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licences/by-nc/4.0/).

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<Previous Article In Issue
Next Article In Issue>
Journal
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
Volume-Issue
8 - 1-2
Pages
29 - 33
Publication Date
2018/12/31
ISSN (Online)
2210-6014
ISSN (Print)
2210-6006
DOI
10.2991/j.jegh.2018.08.100How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2018 Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licences/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Seyedhadi Hosseini
AU  - Manoochehr Karami
AU  - Maryam Farhadian
AU  - Younes Mohammadi
PY  - 2018
DA  - 2018/12/31
TI  - Seasonal Activity of Influenza in Iran: Application of Influenza-like Illness Data from Sentinel Sites of Healthcare Centers during 2010 to 2015
JO  - Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
SP  - 29
EP  - 33
VL  - 8
IS  - 1-2
SN  - 2210-6014
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/j.jegh.2018.08.100
DO  - 10.2991/j.jegh.2018.08.100
ID  - Hosseini2018
ER  -