Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...
Research on the Mutation Mechanism of Victim's Psychology and Behavior after Natural Disaster Based on Catastrophe Theory
Weiwei Zhang, Xuanhua Xu, Bin Pan
Aiming at the problem of victim's rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim's psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...
Lang Huang, Chao Wu
In order to enrich the risk assessment system of new chemical materials of China, a comparative study on risk assessment system of new materials of China and EU was made. Firstly, the comparative study steps were put forward based on the paradigm system of comparative safety science. Then, the development...
Influence and Risk Assessment of Climate Change in Airport of China based on Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process and TOPSIS
Chenyang Song, Ren Zhang, Taiping Hou, Chengzu Bai, Kefeng Liu, Qiang Long
The risks of climate change in six major airports in China's coastal areas.
Zhe Wang, Shanshan Ge, Ren Zhang, Mengqian Yang, Deliang Jiang
The index weight of the reasonable is the basis of objective and quantitative assessment of the risk. Taking a sample of the Northeast Passage Vilkitsky Strait, using the combination of subjectively and objectively, realize the complementary advantages of two ways, to establish the northeast passage...
Shiyong Wen, Fengshou Zhang, Xiang Wang, Xinxin Wang, Fei Li, Fei Wang, Ning Gao, Xuegong Xu
Coastal erosion disaster is one of marine disasters. Coastal erosion disasters caused large areas of land loss, destroyed coastal ecological environment system, and seriously affect the sustainable development of social economy in coastal areas. To effectively cope with the coastal erosion disasters...
Assessment of West Liaohe River Basin's Ecological Vulnerability and Temporal-Spatial Distribution based on Landscape Pattern
Feng Zhang, Jiquan Zhang, Yanan Chen, Qiyun Ma, Enliang Guo, Yongfang Wang
West Liaohe River Basin, which is known as a typical ecological vulnerable district of Northeast China, is taken as a case study in this paper. By collecting 3 period Landsat TM image of 1992,2002 and 2012, the landscape pattern figure is interpreted. Landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability...
Research on Vulnerability Curve of Grassland Snow Disaster of Livestock on Historical Disaster Data in Xilingol
Si Ha, Jiquan Zhang, Zhenhua Dong, Xiangqian Li, Enliang Guo
Natural disaster risk is the possibility of disaster losses, depending on hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and emergency response and recovery capability. Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage, which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss...
Xianfu Cheng, Honghu Sun
The influence degree and causal relationship between the recognition factors are significant to the analysis of the key influencing factors of flood disaster resilience. Influencing factors of regional flood disaster resilience are selected from the five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology...
The Generalized Extreme Value Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation of Potential Source Area based on Maximum Information Entropy Principle
Luchuan Ren, Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian
The author proposes a method to establish the generalized extreme value model for strong earthquake hazard estimation of a potential source area, based on the maximum information entropy principle and corresponding constraint conditions, and then selects the Ryukyu trench subduction zone as a potential...
Evaluation of Flood Vulnerability of Typical Regions at Dongting Lake Area in China Based on Multi-source Information Digging and Fusion
Dehua Mao, Jinli Wang, Xiaohong Fu, Jinhui Li
The flood vulnerability comprehensive evaluation model was established through interpreting the remote sensing image data in 1987, 1998 and 2008 by means of ENVI4.8 and GIS, the collection and analysis to the historical disaster maps and statistical yearbook data of the flood disaster of Dongting Lake...
Study on hazard factor assessment caused by snow disaster in pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia grassland based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data
Chula Sa, Guixiang Liu, Mulan Wang, Yuhai Bao
The daily snow depth time series data set from passive microwave remote sensing(1978-2012) were used in this paper. Establishment of snow cover index to evaluate the risk factors of disaster.The areas with highest risk of snow disaster happened were mainly distributed in northeast of Dongwuzhumuqin banner,...
Assessment of Water Resources Security in Semi Arid Area based on GIS-A Case Study in Naiman County, Inner Mongolia
Xiangqian Li, Zhijun Tong, Zhenhua Dong, Si Ha, Feng Zhang, Pengda Lin
As basic production and living materials, water resources is essential for social-economic development, and is increasingly becoming the limiting factor of regional economic sustainable development. Naiman County is located in the south edge of Horqin sandy land, which faces great challenge of water...
Hubo Zhang, Tiezhong Liu
In view of the interactive and systematic problems of accident caused by high technology, the method of risk identification in the perspective of system theory is studied. We analyze the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP) and the basic steps of Hazard Analysis Technology (STPA) based...
Xiaojun Huang, Yuhai Bao, Altanchimeg D., Ren Bu, Miao Fu, Mei Yong
Erannis jacobsoni Djak is the most important forest pest in Mongolia and has seriously destructive effect to forest ecological system. It is important to study the invasion risk of Inner Mongolia, which is of great significance for the effective prevention of cross-border disaster. Based on it, firstly,...
Hui Gao, Jifu Liu
China is one of the countries which are suffering the most serious debris flows. The social life and economy in the mountain area are suffering a lot from them. With the frequency of debris flow increases in recent years, the threat to human life and property is bigger and bigger. Especially the seismic...
Ecological Risk Assessment and its Spatiotemporal Variations of Northeast China based on Landscape Pattern
Lina Lina, Yulong Bao, Yinshan Yinshan, Chunsheng Mu, Yuhai Bao
The analysis of landscape ecological risk in Northeast China has important guiding significance for the establishment of regional ecological early warning mechanism, the promotion of regional ecological environmental protection and environmental management and social and economic development. Northeast...
Based on the theory, method and model of ecological footprint, this paper measured and analyzed the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, ecological pressure index and ecological risk degree in Huhhot, Baotou and Erdos from 1990 to 2010. The results show: (1) The per...
Song Gao, Shan Zhong, Xihu Lian, Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Yaru Li
Based on the regional disaster system theory, the risk and vulnerability of storm surges in the coastal areas of Qingdao are assessed quantitatively and qualitatively respectively, and a risk index system of storm surge disasters in coastal areas of Qingdao is constructed in this paper. A storm surge...
Xia Liu, Bisong Liu, Qian Wu, Ya Li
Safety of plastics toys has been paid more and more attention. Risk identification of plastic toy in product life cycle, has important effect on promoting the safety of the products. A comprehensive list is established during the design stage.During the manufacturing process, safety check list is used....
This paper introduced the competency mode of public security fire commanders, and analyzed the problems existed in the current public security fire commander abilities. Then it proposed the training mode of public security fire commanders based on competency mode. What's more, it also introduced specific...
Xiankui Zeng, Dong Wang, Jichun Wu
With the rapid development of society and economy in China, the demand for water resource is increasing with industry and agriculture activities. Due to the excessive exploitation of groundwater resource, and global climate change, the seawater intrusion had arisen at some coastal areas in China. In...
A Modeling Technology of Aircraft Landing Safety Prediction under the Extreme Weather Conditions in the Future Based on Cloud Theory
Yangjun Wang, Ren Zhang, Shuang Shen, Zhenghua Wu
This paper focus on hazards, vulnerability and prevention ability three aspects to establish a model for evaluating the safety of aircraft take-off and landing, choosing high winds, low cloud and low visibility as the hazards. Among them, the trend of wind speed is obtained directly from the CMIP5 multi-model...
Ying Zhou, Peng Zhang, Yuexin Lan, Haoqing Li
With the emergencies raising a media storm on the internet, it always brings all kinds of internet rumors at the same time, which not only damages the government's image, but also creates great obstacles to dealing with emergencies. Therefore, conducting risk assessments about Internet Rumors in emergencies...
Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Yingyue Sun, Xiaojing Liu, Jiafu Liu
Urban waterlogging disaster is a serious threat to urban residents' life. The research of urban waterlogging disasters residents emergency shelter by wargaming deductive is available to deduce high risk events at low cost, which can assess and find the emergency loophole and improve the level of emergency...
Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Guiyan Liu
In this paper, with reference to emergency response and warning standard of marine ecological disaster such as red tide and green tide, the methods of external giant jellyfish disaster warning in the coastal waters of Qingdao have been studied according to jellyfish species, toxicity, distribution density,...
Haoyu Wu, Xinyan Wu, Hongwei Li, Yong Luo
101 post-1960 fatal earthquakes in China mainland were selected to build a BP neural network model for rapid earthquake fatality estimation. In this model, event time, magnitude, epicenter intensity, population density and the event region were selected as input vectors. While, the fatality was assigned...
Evolutionary Game Analysis and Simulations for Intra-Village Conflict of Collective Land Expropriation
Haowen Wang, Qiuxiang Li, Haijun Bao, Yi Peng
With rapid urbanization, the social risk caused by collective land expropriation has been increasing. Land conflict rather than the farmers' burden has been the first important issue affecting social security in rural areas. The existing studies on land conflict pay few attentions to intra-village conflict...
Yanjun Zhou, Sha Wang
The Typhoon Damrey, which was entering the Bohai Sea area of Qinghuangdao in 2012, is analyzed comprehensively and evaluated for services using the data from FY-2E Infrared, radar, Micaps 3.1 system, insular stations, buoys, and numerical products, and synchronously comparing between disasters report,...
Yanjiang Li, Yanjun Zhou
using the synchronous data such as weather radar, oceanic WRF model etc., a severe convective weather process has been analyzed on August 31, 2015 in Bohai Sea area,the results show that the shear line moved eastward and enhanced at the 925hPa and 850hPa in Bohai Bay from 08:00 to 20:00,the index K was...
Zhiming Yu, Siyao Wang, Xiaodong Zhang
Based on the data of FY-2E infrared cloud image, radar, micaps3.1, island observation station, large buoy, and numerical weather forecasting products, effects of tropical storm Damrey in 2012 on Tangshan were analyzed, forecast and disaster cause of tropical storm Damrey were also analyzed. The results...
Dapeng Huang, Lei Zhang
Using the 1961-2008 daily precipitation data from 300 meteorological stations in central and eastern China, seven rainstorm factors were selected to construct a synthesis indicator of rainstorm disaster-causing force by principal component analysis according to the principle that rainstorm disaster-causing...
Yongbo Tie, Jintao Jiang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...
Menghao Xi, Qiuhong Zhao, Ningcheng Yang
Flood natural disasters to the human society has caused heavy casualties and property losses, etc., based on the statistical analysis of Sichuan Bazhong flood formation mechanism of natural disasters, on the basis of using risk management theory and methods of building mathematical model for the evaluation...
Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province Based on the Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Network
Chengzu Bai, Ren Zhang, JianQi Zhang, Ting Wang
To expand insufficient information resource and express fuzzy uncertainty for risk assessment, a new Bayesian network was proposed in this paper. Information diffusion model and triangle fuzzy values were employed to improve the prior probability, using Monte Carlo method to establish the conditional...
Xuguang Liu, Ren Bu, Yulong Bao, Baocheng Wei
Based on using basic geographic,socio-economic statistics and meteorological data of HeLinGe'Er, in addition the mechanisms of flood disaster for the risk analysis and divisions,it formed flood disaster index system of risk analysis,it including the indexs of hazard factor,hazard inducing environment,disaster...
Li Mei, Shan Yin, Wala Du, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yu
This paper selected the soil erosion, land desertization, bio-inhabitation as sensitive factor to research eco-environmental sensitivity spatial distribution characteristics of the Xilingol Grassland. (1)slight sensitivity is the main level of soil erosion sensitivity, which mainly distributes in the...
The Response Characteristics of Xilingol Grassland to Uneven Distribution of Precipitation at Temporal and Spatial Scale
Qiaofeng Zhang, Hongbo Yu, Guixiang Liu, Yuhai Bao
Precipitation is the most important water supply source, it has important significance on the vegetation growth, and was an important factor affecting the drought severity in Xilingol grassland. Based on 15 meteorological stations precipitation data and MODIS MOD13A3 NDVI data, Pearson correlation analysis...
Na Zha, Ren Bu, Fuying Qin
Based on 1993 to 2012 of daily precipitation data from seven meteorological station in Hohhot , rainstorm and flood disaster data, Hohhot water distribution figure, 30 meters DEM digital elevation image and Landsat TM images data, using GIS spatial analysis method, classification method, Dimidiate Pixel...
Jinghong Zhang, Haijing Huang, Xiufen Che, Mingjie Zhang
Hainan Island is selected as the study area, which is the main base of natural rubber production. In this research, according to the analysis and study of the cause of rubber wind disaster, parameters in the evaluation model was determined with statistics method based on the environment background and...
The Application of the Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Natural Risk Assessment of Overseas Support Bases
Deliang Jiang, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Mengqian Yang
Focusing on the potential natural risk of overseas support bases, the paper structures the assessment model based on the risk identification according to the particular political and military function. The model uses the Hesitated Analytic Hierarchy Process to collect the specialistic information in...
Rina Wu, Jiquan Zhang, Quan Lai, Siqin Tong
In this paper, daily temperature and daily precipitation data at 15 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014 in Songnen Grassland were used to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of drought. A drought event is defined by the run theory and the drought event is described by two characteristic...
Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015
Dandan Yu, Lishan Li, Lei Wan
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015 have such characteristics as so many typhoons in winter and spring, so few typhoons in the South China Sea, generated source is easier than usual. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the Outgoing Long...
The Application of Gray Model and BP Artificial Neural Network in Predicting Drought in the Liaoning Province
Xiaojing Liu, Yongpeng Song, Donglai Ma, Peng Chen
Precipitation prediction is the core of a regional drought prediction. Due to the great randomness and uncertainty in the precipitation process, this study combined the grey model and BP artificial neural network. The residual errors of precipitation were modified by the BP artificial neural network...
Shujun Guo, Fanlei Zeng, Ga Wang, Gongwen Zhang, Jianwei Liu, Hongfeng Wang, Wei Sun
this paper studied urban road waterlog risk problem of Handan based on the two-dimensional information diffusion model, fist to collected original data including distribution of waterlog spots, raining strength, waterlog history, danger sources and risk bearing objects with the joint of meteorology department,...
Xiaoli Cui, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Zhuoligetu Zhuoligetu, Jianzhong Zhang
Reasonable planning and construction of emergency shelters is an important job for urban economic and social sustainable development, to ensure the safety of people's lives and property, it has very important significance for earthquake disaster reduction. This paper introduces the principle of planning...
Grey forecasting of flood disaster and characteristics of summer grading-precipitation in Togtoh County
Qimuge Qimuge, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which has a great frequency and is more serious in China. Because of the geographical location of Togtoh County, the rainfall is often concentrated in the summer, so the summer rainfall in the region has a direct impact on the occurrence of floods....
Yutian Ke, Shouyun Liang, Zhuo Chen
Kongtong Mountain national geopark is characterized by Danxia landform. Lots of strange shaped unstable rocks emerged in the Danxia landform areas, not only do they have great ornamental and aesthetic value but also are potential geological disasters. During the formation process of landscape-rockfall,...
A Tentative Study on the Influence of Climate Variations for Clipping Pasture's Straw Yield in Hulunbuir Grassland-With Chenbarag Banner for Example
Wei Yan, Hugejiletu Hugejiletu, Narenmandula Narenmandula
The paper takes Chenbarag Banner, Hulunbuir on as the research object, analysis the meteorological data of 1980-2015 and quadrat survey data of 2011-2015, preliminary mastered the influnce of climate change on clipping pasture's straw yield in Hulunbuir Grassland. It is concluded that: First, Chenbarag...
Influence of Hydrothermal Condition and Topography on Dynamic of Vegetation Coverage in Inner Mongolia
Durina Wen, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yin
Vegetation cover is a good indicator for evaluation terrestrial environment. The research on the response of hydrothermal conditions and the relationship with the topographic condition has become one of the main contents.The annual dynamics and spatial variability of vegetation in Inner Mongolia were...
Wentong Li, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Buren Buren, Yuhai Bao, Eerdunmutu Jin
Analyzing the reasons of waterlogging, the main reasons of waterlogging in Hohhot city includes the change of climate leads to the frequent occurrence of extreme rainstorm, with the change of underlying surface of the city the process of runoff of rainwater also changed the low criteria of diainage systems...
Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian, Luchuan Ren
We discuss a method to estimate the seismic tsunami hazard coupling uncertainty of upper magnitude limit and focal depth in this paper. The method of estimating uncertainties of upper magnitude limit and focal depth is discussed. Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones are chosen to be the potential...
Tiangui Xiao, Fengrong Jing, Yawen Zhu, Yujie Fang, Wan Li
Based on 1966-2013 daily precipitation data of 141 sites in Sichuan, GIS elevation and social statistics in Sichuan, extension theory and analytic hierarchy process, return period, correlation function and other methods to build the risk evaluation model of the bureau storm of local heavy rain in Sichuan...
Xiao Liu, Haixiang Guo, Yijing Li, Chunmiao Yang
This paper takes the 248 disaster events happened in China from 1998 to 2016 as samples, uses text mining, descriptive statistics, association rules and other methods to implement event extraction for disaster events in history, and then analyzes characteristics of the disasters including type, location...
Wenkai Chen, Huijuan Pei, Congwang XI, Yanping Sun, Wen Li
This paper established the earthquake disaster risk assessment index system for Gansu Province firstly, determined weights of index factor, and then calculated the earthquake disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity based on GIS software platform, finally...
Applicability Research of Drought Monitoring Indexes on Mongolia Plateau Based on the EOS/MODIS Time Sequence
Duwala Duwala, Yushan Yushan, Narisu Narisu, Guixiang Liu
Taking Mongolia plateau as a study area, make use of the temperature and vegetation products of the EOS/MODIS data to calculate four index they are vegetation condition index (VCI) and temperature condition index (TCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) andÿvegetation supply water indexÿ(VSWI). Mapped...
Ding Chen, Tiangui Xiao, Fengrong Jing, Li Wang, Jianglin Fan, Zhaoyu Zhan, Weiwei Gan, Chao Wang, Yujie Fang, Yawen Zhu
This paper based on the Sichuan daily precipitation data, geographic information and historical data such as disaster,then using industry proven lightweight Java EE frameworks to building the business of system and the evaluation model implemented by Fortran language, Finally completion of the rainstorm...
Baotana Baotana, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Our country is one of the countries which are affected by natural disasters most in the world. Every year, disasters cause huge losses to national economy and people's living. Since it enters into 1960s, rainstorms, flood and waterlogging have become major disasters which affect our country's social...
Sen Qiao, Xueliang Chen, Aiwen Liu, Zengping Wen, Xiaojun Li, Zongchao Li, Tiefei Li
There was an earthquake hit Ludian county, Yunnan province on August 3, 2014, and the seismogenic fault was the North-West Baogunao-Xiaohe Fault. The magnitude of the surface wave magnitude (Ms) was 6.5, not so large, but the earthquake caused severe casualties. The main-shock strong ground motions were...
Peng Zhang, Lizhi Wu, Jing Xin, Jing Liu
The assessment of the indirect economic loss cased by the disaster has great significance on the reconstruction. However, when assessing the indirect loss after disaster, it needs research on the scientific and sensitivity of the parameters of the model structure and the availability of the corresponding...
Seismic Moment-Rate and Longtoushan Records to Determinate Seismogenic Fault Direction of Ludian Ms6.5 Earthquake
Xueliang Chen, Mengtan Gao, Shicheng Li, Jianwen Cui, Jinping Guo, Sen Qiao
Three-component displacement time histories on the surface of near-field fault are obtained from analytical calculation of seismic moment release rate function and energy center source model. Analytical strong motion are compared with the strong motion records in meizoseismal area, the results indicated...
Spatiotemporal Variations of Hydrologic Extremes and Response to Extreme Precipitation in Xiang River Basin
Linlin Cheng, Juan Du, Yumeng Yang
Trends of streamflow and water level extremes are significant indicators reflecting the risk of floods and droughts. The study on trends of hydrologic extremes can provide references for water resource management and flood risk analysis. Based on Mann-Kendall test, this article detected existing trends...
Heavy rainfall is a serious hazard, which lead to losses of urban property and cause casualties. In this paper, based on hourly precipitation data of Guanxiangtai meteorological station of Beijing, bivariate joint distribution of heavy rainfall is established using the observed data of accumulated precipitation...
Xiaoli Huang, Yaolong Liu, Jin Duan, Huaming Zhang
Highway traffic accidents are characterized by high death rate, large economic losses and so on. Based on the gray system theory, the gray correlation analysis model of accident causes and hazard indexes is set up, with the number of accidents caused by different reasons as the standard data array and...
Study on the Risk Analysis and Emergency Management System of Major Accidents in Chemical Industry Park
Changxing Ren, Haitao Li, Ning Zhou, Xiongjun Yuan
According to the urgent require and hot issues on the region accidents risk and management in chemical industry park, some accident cases at home and abroad were collected and classfied by the accident types. Based on the accident theory of chain of accident caused, the evolution basic parameters and...
Feng Wang, Qiang Long, Chang Wang, Linlin Jiang
With the rapid development of China's marine economy and the port economy, involved in the work of the security problem is becoming more and more prominent, especially the crane operation risk relates to the port operation, which gets more attention. The operational risk and the early warning and scheduling...
Xiaoya Song, Changxing Ren, Fan Wu, Qi Ni, Jun Jiang
FDS+EVAC was used to simulate the subway train fire and research the related risk analysis of human evacuation. It was also used to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of emergency evacuation on subway fire. The baggage in the middle of train burned out in the simulation and the power of fire...
Peinan Zheng, Xiaoting Li, Shouhua Liu
The urgent need for ship safety and security of maritime activities, utilization of marine survey and satellite remote sensing data and other information retrieval sea waves, wave spectrum analysis of variation characteristics of freak waves occur when mixed wave conditions, research waves, surge of...
Qinghua Gong, Jun Wang, Junxiang Zhang
This paper reviews the status of the tailings dam safety and flood control study. The current tailings security research mainly comprising security monitoring and early warning, failure mechanism, break model, the risk of dam failure and emergency decision-making. This paper summarized the main achievements...
Hanyu Ju, Jiquan Zhang, Caiyun Sun, Sijia Li
Take theÿsulfamethoxazoleÿand metronidazole as two examples, exploring the spatial distribution of antibiotics in two drinking water sources, which are in Xin Licheng reservoir and Shitou Koumen reservoir, and evaluating ecological risk and human health risk. The average concentration ofÿsulfamethoxazoleÿand...
Deyin Huang, Minyan Li, Mao Liu
Objective To research the risk assessment method of welder's pneumoconiosis caused by welding fume exposure, predict the incidence of welder's pneumoconiosis, and provide technical basis for occupational risk management. Method Welders of a large-scale agricultural machinery processing workshop were...
Li Li, Yuting Sun, Lei Xiao
In view of the good generalization performance of the random forest classifier, this paper uses the random forest classifier to analyze the risk of the 961 groups of breast tumor lesion tissue digital mammography image data. Empirical results show that the random forest classifier has better generalization...
Household Risk Factors and Intention of Safety Equipment Use among the Elderly: a Survey from Two Districts of Beijing
Qiujie Zhang, Yingnan Ma, Wei Zhu, Xing Gao, Pengxia Zhao
To understand the household risk factors and willingness of safety equipment use of the elderly, 789 elderly people were surveyed with questionnaires in two districts of Beijing. Related factors in gender, age, level of education, physiological status, psychological status, household environment conditions...
Sihong Chao, Yanxue Jiang, Li Qiao, Hongbin Cao
The concentrations of PAHs in 29 soil samples in a little town in southern Jiangsu were detected. Based on these soil concentration data and parameters from existing studies for this area, we use contaminated land exposure assessment (CLEA) model developed by Environment Agency of United Kingdom to analyze...
Simulation of Spatial Distributions of Atmospheric Heavy Metals in Xinzhuang and Assessment of Their Health Risks
Yanjiao Chen, Yaobin Meng, Hongbin Cao
The exhaust gas generated by waste incineration plant contains heavy metals. They will harm organ function and human health. The CALPUFF model was used to simulate the transport and diffusion of heavy metals of cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and nickel (Ni) in atmosphere emitted from exhaust...
Jieyu Zhu, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang, Lachun Wang, Wei Huang, Debiao Zeng, Lili Jiang, Dengfeng Liu
With the rapid development of agriculture and industry in Taihu Lake Basin, Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) have become the focus of research. The paper performed ecological and health risk assessment for PAHs in Taihu Lake Basin. Based on the measured data from the centralized source of drinking...
Jie Liu, Xuanhua Xu, Bin Pan
Aiming at the risk problems of social stability caused by outsize flood, on the base of the topology map for the evolution of flood social stability risk, we should focus on the position of the risk in the topology map for the evolution of flood social stability risk. The flow betweenness centrality...
Construction of the Social Impact Assessment Index System and Its Conceptual Framework of Grassland Drought Disaster Based on SD Model
Zhenhua Dong, Jiquan Zhang, Zhijun Tong, A. Rong
Grassland drought disaster is one of the main meteorological disasters with a wide range of influence, long duration and difficult to deal with. It not only poses a great loss and threat to the economic and ecological environment, but also causes serious secondary disasters to the society. Based on the...
Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Urban Flood Disaster Social Risk Based on the Model of Four Dimensions of Social Amplification of Risk
Qian Sun, Xuanpeng Yin, Jing Cao
Aiming at the problem that social stability and order is often seriously threatened by urban flood disasters, a four dimensions model of social amplification of urban flood disaster social risk amplification in Chinese transforming society is proposed on the basis of the theory of social amplification...
The Risk Assessment of the Economic Interests of the Arctic and the Political Power Game Based on the Cloud Model
Mengqian Yang, Shanshan Ge, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Deliang Jiang
As a result of climate warming, the ice and snow of the Arctic melt, which makes the possibility of the opening of the Arctic waterway increases, the Arctic region of energy exploitation's difficulty reduce, and the strategic position of the arctic improve. Because of the natural geographical advantages,...
Measure the market risk of the American basket options based on the Least Square Monte Carlo Simulation Approach
Qiang Li, Xueling Zhu
This article applies a simple yet powerful LSM approach for approximating the value of American basket options by simulation.The primary objective is to compare basket Index prices derived from different noise processes. As alternatives,the Brownian motion benchmark is compared to noise processes driven...
Research on Credit Risk Early-Warning for Listed Companies in Chengyu Economic Zone Based on Best Fuzzy Support Vector Machine
Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou
Taking listed companies in Chengyu Economic Zone as an example, this paper introduces the fuzzy algorithm into support vector machine (SVM), constructing the model of fuzzy support vector machine (FSVM) for Credit risk early-warning, which based on four different kernel functions (linear, polynomial,...
Zheng Ma, Hongmei Zhang, Ziyan Wang
Today, Invest in the stock market has increasingly perfect continuous development, individual investors has gradually become the main force of stock investment, but due to various constraints, individual investors for face of massive investment information, they cannot identify the valuable investment...
Ronggang Zhang, Runheng Wang
In recent years, securities-based crowdfunding has been developed rapidly in China. But investors are facing the risk of information asymmetry, law, financial business, operation and information security. This paper sorts the risks by using FAHP, and shows that: the degree of prominence from high to...
Junquan Ding, Yazhong Chen, Zhiqiang Chen, Hongmei Zhang
Nowadays, with the integration of network technology and finance, the new Internet financing represented by P2P network credit platform has been developing rapidly, and even appeared a chaotic situation, the industry constantly produces bankruptcy because capital chain rupture, illegal fund raising,...
Meng Wang, Mu Zhang
In the process of China's economic development, small and medium-sized enterprises have been an indispensable part of. In the spring tide in the structural adjustment of enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprise is shouldering the important responsibility of the economic development. However, the...
Zhiqiang Chen, Hongmei Zhang
As China's market-oriented and international level gradually increased, financial institutions, particularly, the securities firm's has faced much more risks which has showing a diverse, volatile trend. Through quantitative analysis methods, used KMV model to analyzes the credit risk of domestic securities...
Miao Tian, Mu Zhang
To study the stimulating effect of loan risk compensation fund for SME loans, loans play a more effective risk compensation mechanism, the paper 2015 cross-sectional data 15 provinces and is calculated using the risk-based approach to verify the compensation fund for SME analysis of the role of loans...
Qian Chen, Mu Zhang
Investment loan linkage is one of innovative attempts for commercial banks to solve the financial difficulties encountered among SMEs, achieving the integration of technological and financial development, and reaching that the mutual benefit and win-win results. Since the investment loan linkage business...
Financial Agglomeration Level Domain Western Province Based on Principal Component Analysis Measurement
Hongmei Zhang, Teng Li, Xiangrui Meng, Ziyan Wang
In order to analyze the level of China's western provincial financial agglomeration. In this paper, based on the really situation of western China, by constructing domain Agglomeration Level Measurement of financial evaluation index system of western provinces. using principal component analyze the western...
Premium Subsidies, Efficiency Loss and Externalities of Agricultural Target Price Insurance---A Theoretical Framework
Liang Zhao, Lei Xu, Ningning Zhang
In the study, analyzes and define the agricultural target price insurance. Then researches the mechanism of the premium subsidies and direct subsidies and think that the premium subsidies will result in losing efficiency. Find the causes and extent of efficiency loss and concluded By constructing the...
Design of the Insurance Contract Based on the Weather Indices of Chilling Injury in Litchi and Demonstration Application
Chunyi Wang, Jinghong Zhang, Yajie Zhang, Haijing Huang, Xiufen Che
Chilling injuries severely affect and restrict the litchi production in Hainan. Accordingly, the studies on the design of insurance contracts based on the weather indices and will be of great significance for transferring disaster risks, reducing the losses of planters. Using the data of litchi yield...
Xiaojun Pan, Chengyi Pu
Precisely estimation of Cat-loss is not only the foundation of risk analysis, but also the premise of product design and the practice of insurance compensation. The law of large numbers generally assumes risks have normal distributions, which reduces the accuracy of damage assessment and influences the...
Performance Evaluation of Planting Insurance Premium Subsidies in China-Based on the dynamic DEA and the three stage DEA
Jinzheng Ren, Shisen Li
Using dynamic DEA and the three stage DEA method ,we evaluated the operating efficiency of the insurance premium subsidy funds in the provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China during 2008-2012. In the process ,we selected the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions as decision...
Xiaofeng Xie, Ynag Yang, Zongfang Zhou
In the symmetric case the lender and borrower has same information about buyer. While in the asymmetric case whether the buyer default is the private information of borrower. The theoretical framework we constructed in this study has focused on lending strategy of lender to the case when the buyer of...
Changbing Yang, Mu Zhang
Abstract:in order to value the equity of SME effectively, we modify the traditional DCF model, namely, we use stochastic variable to describe the factors which have direct impact on cash-in and cash-out; then we use stochastic equation to portray the change of equity valuation; finally, we will simulate...
Eastern Jilin Province Rice Cold Damage Risk Vulnerability Curve Established Based on CERES-Rice Model
Chunming Guo, Meng Zhu, Tiehua Cao, Jiquan Zhang
Eastern Jilin Province is one of the most frequent areas of rice chilling injury, vulnerability is used to reflect the possibility of hazard bearing body by stress factors Stress loss is the key factor in the formation of disaster risk, disaster risk is connected with the disaster bridge, the paper's...
Rui Wang, Xingping Liu, Jiquan Zhang, Enliang Guo, Meng Zhu, Danjun Li
Based on the data of the climatic, maize growth and development, and the yield from 23 meteorological stations throughout the Xiliaohe watershed during 1961 and 2010. The whole growing period of maize was divided into three stages, early stage(from seedling to tasseling stage),medium stage(from tasseling...
Qi Zhang, Juan Du, Jiquan Zhang
Based on daily precipitation data, maize growth and yield data for the period 1981-2009 at 12 meteorological stations in Jilin. Then the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and Mann-Kendall test were used to study the drought disaster during different growing period of corn. The results showed that...
Guoqu Deng, Shujuan Kang, Kai Guo
The Chinese government has been working to explore the spread of agricultural catastrophe risk management. The agricultural catastrophe risk diversification has experienced the financial leading mode and the financial support mode, at present has the transition to the multi-level risk dispersion model...