Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

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155 articles

Evolutionary Game Analysis and Simulations for Intra-Village Conflict of Collective Land Expropriation

Haowen Wang, Qiuxiang Li, Haijun Bao, Yi Peng
With rapid urbanization, the social risk caused by collective land expropriation has been increasing. Land conflict rather than the farmers' burden has been the first important issue affecting social security in rural areas. The existing studies on land conflict pay few attentions to intra-village conflict...

Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster-causing Force of Flood Risk in Central and Eastern China

Dapeng Huang, Lei Zhang
Using the 1961-2008 daily precipitation data from 300 meteorological stations in central and eastern China, seven rainstorm factors were selected to construct a synthesis indicator of rainstorm disaster-causing force by principal component analysis according to the principle that rainstorm disaster-causing...

Copula-based Analysis of Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Drought in Songnen Grassland

Rina Wu, Jiquan Zhang, Quan Lai, Siqin Tong
In this paper, daily temperature and daily precipitation data at 15 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014 in Songnen Grassland were used to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of drought. A drought event is defined by the run theory and the drought event is described by two characteristic...

Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015

Dandan Yu, Lishan Li, Lei Wan
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015 have such characteristics as so many typhoons in winter and spring, so few typhoons in the South China Sea, generated source is easier than usual. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the Outgoing Long...

Grey forecasting of flood disaster and characteristics of summer grading-precipitation in Togtoh County

Qimuge Qimuge, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which has a great frequency and is more serious in China. Because of the geographical location of Togtoh County, the rainfall is often concentrated in the summer, so the summer rainfall in the region has a direct impact on the occurrence of floods....

Disaster Risk of Landscape-Rockfall in Danxia Landform of Kongtong Mountain

Yutian Ke, Shouyun Liang, Zhuo Chen
Kongtong Mountain national geopark is characterized by Danxia landform. Lots of strange shaped unstable rocks emerged in the Danxia landform areas, not only do they have great ornamental and aesthetic value but also are potential geological disasters. During the formation process of landscape-rockfall,...

Influence of Hydrothermal Condition and Topography on Dynamic of Vegetation Coverage in Inner Mongolia

Durina Wen, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yin
Vegetation cover is a good indicator for evaluation terrestrial environment. The research on the response of hydrothermal conditions and the relationship with the topographic condition has become one of the main contents.The annual dynamics and spatial variability of vegetation in Inner Mongolia were...

Fire Simulation and Evacuation Risk Analysis on Subway Train

Xiaoya Song, Changxing Ren, Fan Wu, Qi Ni, Jun Jiang
FDS+EVAC was used to simulate the subway train fire and research the related risk analysis of human evacuation. It was also used to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of emergency evacuation on subway fire. The baggage in the middle of train burned out in the simulation and the power of fire...

Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Urban Flood Disaster Social Risk Based on the Model of Four Dimensions of Social Amplification of Risk

Qian Sun, Xuanpeng Yin, Jing Cao
Aiming at the problem that social stability and order is often seriously threatened by urban flood disasters, a four dimensions model of social amplification of urban flood disaster social risk amplification in Chinese transforming society is proposed on the basis of the theory of social amplification...

Risk analysis and risk management in financial industry

Qian Chen, Mu Zhang
Investment loan linkage is one of innovative attempts for commercial banks to solve the financial difficulties encountered among SMEs, achieving the integration of technological and financial development, and reaching that the mutual benefit and win-win results. Since the investment loan linkage business...

Trade Credit and Lending Strategy of Supply Chain with Information Asymmetry

Xiaofeng Xie, Ynag Yang, Zongfang Zhou
In the symmetric case the lender and borrower has same information about buyer. While in the asymmetric case whether the buyer default is the private information of borrower. The theoretical framework we constructed in this study has focused on lending strategy of lender to the case when the buyer of...

Eastern Jilin Province Rice Cold Damage Risk Vulnerability Curve Established Based on CERES-Rice Model

Chunming Guo, Meng Zhu, Tiehua Cao, Jiquan Zhang
Eastern Jilin Province is one of the most frequent areas of rice chilling injury, vulnerability is used to reflect the possibility of hazard bearing body by stress factors Stress loss is the key factor in the formation of disaster risk, disaster risk is connected with the disaster bridge, the paper's...

Hazard Analysis of Drought and Flood Disaster for Maize in Xiliaohe Watershed

Rui Wang, Xingping Liu, Jiquan Zhang, Enliang Guo, Meng Zhu, Danjun Li
Based on the data of the climatic, maize growth and development, and the yield from 23 meteorological stations throughout the Xiliaohe watershed during 1961 and 2010. The whole growing period of maize was divided into three stages, early stage(from seedling to tasseling stage),medium stage(from tasseling...

Distribution and Ecological Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Agricultural Soil along Main Roadside in Changchun

Yanan Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang, Mo Zhou
Based on theanalysis of agriculturalsoil sampled along main roadside in Changchun. Get the pollution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil, distribution feature of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in agricultural along main roadside in Changchun was investigated; Results showed that the...

Research on Temporal and Spatial Dynamic of Maize Drought Using Remote Sensing: A Case on Shuanghe Farm of Beijing

Yunxiang Jin, Sijian Zhao, Wei Sun, Lei Xu, Qian Nie, Qiao Zhang
Drought, which is one of main meteorological disasters, always affects maize production. Remote sensing has become an important and effective technology for maize drought monitoring and assessment. In this paper, maize planting region in Shuanghe farm of Beijing was selected as study areas. We calculated...

Comparative Study on Risk Assessment System of New Chemical Materials of China and European Union

Lang Huang, Chao Wu
In order to enrich the risk assessment system of new chemical materials of China, a comparative study on risk assessment system of new materials of China and EU was made. Firstly, the comparative study steps were put forward based on the paradigm system of comparative safety science. Then, the development...

Study on Influence Factors of Regional Flood Disaster Resilience Based on DEMATEL-ANP

Xianfu Cheng, Honghu Sun
The influence degree and causal relationship between the recognition factors are significant to the analysis of the key influencing factors of flood disaster resilience. Influencing factors of regional flood disaster resilience are selected from the five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology...

The Generalized Extreme Value Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation of Potential Source Area based on Maximum Information Entropy Principle

Luchuan Ren, Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian
The author proposes a method to establish the generalized extreme value model for strong earthquake hazard estimation of a potential source area, based on the maximum information entropy principle and corresponding constraint conditions, and then selects the Ryukyu trench subduction zone as a potential...

Evaluation of Flood Vulnerability of Typical Regions at Dongting Lake Area in China Based on Multi-source Information Digging and Fusion

Dehua Mao, Jinli Wang, Xiaohong Fu, Jinhui Li
The flood vulnerability comprehensive evaluation model was established through interpreting the remote sensing image data in 1987, 1998 and 2008 by means of ENVI4.8 and GIS, the collection and analysis to the historical disaster maps and statistical yearbook data of the flood disaster of Dongting Lake...

Ecological Risk Assessment and its Spatiotemporal Variations of Northeast China based on Landscape Pattern

Lina Lina, Yulong Bao, Yinshan Yinshan, Chunsheng Mu, Yuhai Bao
The analysis of landscape ecological risk in Northeast China has important guiding significance for the establishment of regional ecological early warning mechanism, the promotion of regional ecological environmental protection and environmental management and social and economic development. Northeast...

Ecological Risk Assessment of HuBaoE Area in Inner Mongolia based on Ecological Footprint Analyses

Jianghong Zhen
Based on the theory, method and model of ecological footprint, this paper measured and analyzed the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, ecological pressure index and ecological risk degree in Huhhot, Baotou and Erdos from 1990 to 2010. The results show: (1) The per...

On the Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disasters in the Coastal Areas of Qingdao

Song Gao, Shan Zhong, Xihu Lian, Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Yaru Li
Based on the regional disaster system theory, the risk and vulnerability of storm surges in the coastal areas of Qingdao are assessed quantitatively and qualitatively respectively, and a risk index system of storm surge disasters in coastal areas of Qingdao is constructed in this paper. A storm surge...

The Identification and Prevention of the Risk from EPC Project Owner

Hui Gao, Xiuhao Ding
As EPC mode is widely used in the large engineering projects and the engineering general contracting market competition is increasingly fierce, contract with own capital and party a-supplied materials has become the important characteristic of EPC project. From the perspective of general contractor,...

Characteristics of Vibration of Reinforced Concrete Buildings of Different Ages

Gegentana Gegentana, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Hongge Wang, Jianzhong Bao, Fengxiang Li, Hiroshi Kawase, Youyichi Matushima
In order to determine the vibration characteristics of reinforced concrete buildings of different ages, shapes similar to Hohhot, the same height reinforced concrete building built in different years as the research object, the use of micro-observation methods often mastered the natural cycle of the...

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Desertification and Landscape Pattern Change in Hulunbeier Sandy Land

Narisu Narisu, Yinshan Yinshan, Yushan Yushan, Yuhai Bao, Lina Lina, Baocheng Wei
Based on the TM and ETM+ Lands at image data of 2000-2014, using the GIS spatial analysis method and visual interpretation methods, we extract the dynamic desertification information of Hulunbeier sand land. The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of landscape pattern are analyzed on the foundation...

Internal ligament of conservation medicine: Big data

Xiaolong Wang
Conservation medicine is an emerging interdisciplinary, taking the common health of human-animal-environment as its purpose. But since its come into being, the realistic vector of the epistemology of conservation medicine risk analysis, the approach of depth fusion for related disciplines and other key...

Research on remote monitoring and control of big data platform based on Internet of things

Jianmiao Zhu, Yunzhong Fang, Chenghang Jiang, Shiyuan HU
In order to give full play of big data on the safety production monitoring, To carry out the research on Hazard source safety monitoring service platform based on Internet of things. The platform based on the classification of major hazard sources, Safety parameter monitoring and control technology,...

The Design and Application of Public Security Risk Register in Beijing City Community

Hui Lyu, Xin Bai
Community is the cell of city. Community risk is an important breeding ground and management object for the whole city and social safety. The community risk register provides a framework and system to check risk information. In this paper, based on the risk register concepts, processes, research progress...

A Modeling Technology of Aircraft Landing Safety Prediction under the Extreme Weather Conditions in the Future Based on Cloud Theory

Yangjun Wang, Ren Zhang, Shuang Shen, Zhenghua Wu
This paper focus on hazards, vulnerability and prevention ability three aspects to establish a model for evaluating the safety of aircraft take-off and landing, choosing high winds, low cloud and low visibility as the hazards. Among them, the trend of wind speed is obtained directly from the CMIP5 multi-model...

Study on Crisis Early-warning of Internet Rumors about Emergencies Based on BP Neural Network

Ying Zhou, Peng Zhang, Yuexin Lan, Haoqing Li
With the emergencies raising a media storm on the internet, it always brings all kinds of internet rumors at the same time, which not only damages the government's image, but also creates great obstacles to dealing with emergencies. Therefore, conducting risk assessments about Internet Rumors in emergencies...

Study on Emergency Evacuation System of City Waterlogging Wargaming Rules of Residents

Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Yingyue Sun, Xiaojing Liu, Jiafu Liu
Urban waterlogging disaster is a serious threat to urban residents' life. The research of urban waterlogging disasters residents emergency shelter by wargaming deductive is available to deduce high risk events at low cost, which can assess and find the emergency loophole and improve the level of emergency...

Research on Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Death Toll Based on Neural Network

Haoyu Wu, Xinyan Wu, Hongwei Li, Yong Luo
101 post-1960 fatal earthquakes in China mainland were selected to build a BP neural network model for rapid earthquake fatality estimation. In this model, event time, magnitude, epicenter intensity, population density and the event region were selected as input vectors. While, the fatality was assigned...

Lessons of mitigation from a low frequency debris flow event

Yongbo Tie, Jintao Jiang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...

Flood and Water-Logging Disaster Risk Analysis and Research of Bazhong City

Menghao Xi, Qiuhong Zhao, Ningcheng Yang
Flood natural disasters to the human society has caused heavy casualties and property losses, etc., based on the statistical analysis of Sichuan Bazhong flood formation mechanism of natural disasters, on the basis of using risk management theory and methods of building mathematical model for the evaluation...

Characteristics and Sensitivity Analysis Division of Flood Disaster in Hohhot

Na Zha, Ren Bu, Fuying Qin
Based on 1993 to 2012 of daily precipitation data from seven meteorological station in Hohhot , rainstorm and flood disaster data, Hohhot water distribution figure, 30 meters DEM digital elevation image and Landsat TM images data, using GIS spatial analysis method, classification method, Dimidiate Pixel...

Hohhot Earthquake Emergency Shelter Planning and Construction Situation Analysis and Suggestion

Xiaoli Cui, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Zhuoligetu Zhuoligetu, Jianzhong Zhang
Reasonable planning and construction of emergency shelters is an important job for urban economic and social sustainable development, to ensure the safety of people's lives and property, it has very important significance for earthquake disaster reduction. This paper introduces the principle of planning...

A Tentative Study on the Influence of Climate Variations for Clipping Pasture's Straw Yield in Hulunbuir Grassland-With Chenbarag Banner for Example

Wei Yan, Hugejiletu Hugejiletu, Narenmandula Narenmandula
The paper takes Chenbarag Banner, Hulunbuir on as the research object, analysis the meteorological data of 1980-2015 and quadrat survey data of 2011-2015, preliminary mastered the influnce of climate change on clipping pasture's straw yield in Hulunbuir Grassland. It is concluded that: First, Chenbarag...

Risk Assessment of the Bureau Storm Disaster by the Application of Extension Theory in Sichuan

Tiangui Xiao, Fengrong Jing, Yawen Zhu, Yujie Fang, Wan Li
Based on 1966-2013 daily precipitation data of 141 sites in Sichuan, GIS elevation and social statistics in Sichuan, extension theory and analytic hierarchy process, return period, correlation function and other methods to build the risk evaluation model of the bureau storm of local heavy rain in Sichuan...

Research on Rainstorm Risk Evaluation System Construction in Sichuan Province

Ding Chen, Tiangui Xiao, Fengrong Jing, Li Wang, Jianglin Fan, Zhaoyu Zhan, Weiwei Gan, Chao Wang, Yujie Fang, Yawen Zhu
This paper based on the Sichuan daily precipitation data, geographic information and historical data such as disaster,then using industry proven lightweight Java EE frameworks to building the business of system and the evaluation model implemented by Fortran language, Finally completion of the rainstorm...

Analysis on Economic Impact of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation--A Case Study of Togtoh County

Baotana Baotana, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Our country is one of the countries which are affected by natural disasters most in the world. Every year, disasters cause huge losses to national economy and people's living. Since it enters into 1960s, rainstorms, flood and waterlogging have become major disasters which affect our country's social...

Seismic Moment-Rate and Longtoushan Records to Determinate Seismogenic Fault Direction of Ludian Ms6.5 Earthquake

Xueliang Chen, Mengtan Gao, Shicheng Li, Jianwen Cui, Jinping Guo, Sen Qiao
Three-component displacement time histories on the surface of near-field fault are obtained from analytical calculation of seismic moment release rate function and energy center source model. Analytical strong motion are compared with the strong motion records in meizoseismal area, the results indicated...

The Correlation Analysis of Influencing Factors and Harmfulness of Expressway Traffic Accident

Xiaoli Huang, Yaolong Liu, Jin Duan, Huaming Zhang
Highway traffic accidents are characterized by high death rate, large economic losses and so on. Based on the gray system theory, the gray correlation analysis model of accident causes and hazard indexes is set up, with the number of accidents caused by different reasons as the standard data array and...

Breast Cancer Risk Diagnosis based on Random Forest Classification

Li Li, Yuting Sun, Lei Xiao
In view of the good generalization performance of the random forest classifier, this paper uses the random forest classifier to analyze the risk of the 961 groups of breast tumor lesion tissue digital mammography image data. Empirical results show that the random forest classifier has better generalization...

The Application of CLEA Model in Accessing Health Risks of PAHs in Soil

Sihong Chao, Yanxue Jiang, Li Qiao, Hongbin Cao
The concentrations of PAHs in 29 soil samples in a little town in southern Jiangsu were detected. Based on these soil concentration data and parameters from existing studies for this area, we use contaminated land exposure assessment (CLEA) model developed by Environment Agency of United Kingdom to analyze...

Ecological and Health Risk Assessment of Persistent Organic Pollutants in Taihu Lake Basin

Jieyu Zhu, Dong Wang, Yuankun Wang, Lachun Wang, Wei Huang, Debiao Zeng, Lili Jiang, Dengfeng Liu
With the rapid development of agriculture and industry in Taihu Lake Basin, Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) have become the focus of research. The paper performed ecological and health risk assessment for PAHs in Taihu Lake Basin. Based on the measured data from the centralized source of drinking...

The Risk Assessment of the Economic Interests of the Arctic and the Political Power Game Based on the Cloud Model

Mengqian Yang, Shanshan Ge, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Deliang Jiang
As a result of climate warming, the ice and snow of the Arctic melt, which makes the possibility of the opening of the Arctic waterway increases, the Arctic region of energy exploitation's difficulty reduce, and the strategic position of the arctic improve. Because of the natural geographical advantages,...

Construction of Risk Assessment Index System of P2P Net Loan Platform Based on ANP

Junquan Ding, Yazhong Chen, Zhiqiang Chen, Hongmei Zhang
Nowadays, with the integration of network technology and finance, the new Internet financing represented by P2P network credit platform has been developing rapidly, and even appeared a chaotic situation, the industry constantly produces bankruptcy because capital chain rupture, illegal fund raising,...

Decision Analysis of Entrepreneurial Company' Venture Leasing

Meng Wang, Mu Zhang
In the process of China's economic development, small and medium-sized enterprises have been an indispensable part of. In the spring tide in the structural adjustment of enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprise is shouldering the important responsibility of the economic development. However, the...

On the Actuarial Simulation of the General Pareto Distribution of Catastrophe Loss

Xiaojun Pan, Chengyi Pu
Precisely estimation of Cat-loss is not only the foundation of risk analysis, but also the premise of product design and the practice of insurance compensation. The law of large numbers generally assumes risks have normal distributions, which reduces the accuracy of damage assessment and influences the...

Spatio-temporal Characteristics Of Corn Drought Disaster in Jilin based on Yearly Growth Stage Data

Qi Zhang, Juan Du, Jiquan Zhang
Based on daily precipitation data, maize growth and yield data for the period 1981-2009 at 12 meteorological stations in Jilin. Then the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and Mann-Kendall test were used to study the drought disaster during different growing period of corn. The results showed that...