Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

The Generalized Extreme Value Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation of Potential Source Area based on Maximum Information Entropy Principle

Authors
Luchuan Ren, Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian
Corresponding Author
Luchuan Ren
Available Online November 2016.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.10How to use a DOI?
Keywords
maximum information entropy principle; generalized extreme value model; potential seismic source area; seismic hazard estimation
Abstract
The author proposes a method to establish the generalized extreme value model for strong earthquake hazard estimation of a potential source area, based on the maximum information entropy principle and corresponding constraint conditions, and then selects the Ryukyu trench subduction zone as a potential seismic source area for case study. The results show: Considering that the Weibull distribution, among the three kinds of generalized extreme value distribution, has limited upper extreme point, and the upper bound magnitude of a potential seismic source area should be limited, therefore the Weibull distribution model should be selected to establish the generalized extreme value model for strong earthquake hazard estimation; Under the condition that the upper bound magnitude of a potential seismic source area be limited, and in according with the maximum information entropy principle, the probability density function of the maximum magnitude of a potential seismic source area, in each time interval, can be expressed as a general formula with three parameters, and these parameters can be calculated from the estimated values of shape parameter, location parameter and scale parameter of the corresponding Weibull distribution.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Download article (PDF)

Proceedings
7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC-2016)
Publication Date
November 2016
ISBN
978-94-6252-242-8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.10How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Luchuan Ren
AU  - Zhe Liu
AU  - Jianwei Tian
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - The Generalized Extreme Value Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation of Potential Source Area based on Maximum Information Entropy Principle
BT  - 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC-2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.10
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.10
ID  - Ren2016/11
ER  -