Proceedings of the 2022 7th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2022)

The Predicting Power of Asset Pricing Models during Market Turmoil

Authors
Xinyuan Liu1, a, *, , Yunlong Ren2, b, *, , byren43@ucsc.edu
1Shanghai Lixin university of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai, China
2University of California Santa Cruz, United State

These authors contributed equally.

*Corresponding author. Email: alxy_010120@163.com
Corresponding Authors
Xinyuan Liu, Yunlong Renbyren43@ucsc.edu
Available Online 26 March 2022.
DOI
10.2991/aebmr.k.220307.379How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Asset pricing model; Market turmoil; Stock market
Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive return power of three asset pricing models during market turmoil: the CAPM, Fama-French 5 factor model, and q-factor model. We select two periods of market downturns: the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid period. The models are trained before these two periods and tested during the market turbulence. We specifically test the models on 10 stocks with different firm characteristics and compare their difference in performance. Out of three different asset pricing models, we find that the Fama-French five-factor model performs the best, with relatively small prediction error and standard deviation. When facing financial turmoil, the predictive ability of the three models decreases.

Copyright
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 7th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2022)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
26 March 2022
ISBN
978-94-6239-554-1
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/aebmr.k.220307.379How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Xinyuan Liu
AU  - Yunlong Ren
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/03/26
TI  - The Predicting Power of Asset Pricing Models during Market Turmoil
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 7th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 2321
EP  - 2334
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220307.379
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.220307.379
ID  - Liu2022
ER  -