Influence of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member Countries and Observer Countries

DOI

10.2991/icemc-16.2016.206How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Crude oil prices; PVAR; The Shanghai cooperation organization; Regional cooperation

Abstract

Based on the panel data of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member countries and observer countries' economic growth and the exchange rate from 1994 to 2015, this paper established the panel vector auto regression model (PVAR), and analyzed how the international oil prices fluctuation affects he Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states and observer countries using impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. We found, in short-term, international oil prices promoted oil-exporting countries economic growth, and inhibited oil-importing countries. In the long term, the increasing oil prices will be beneficial to the SCO member countries on economic development. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member countries and observer countries should expand cooperation and promote economic restructuring, in order to withstand the international crude oil market risks resulting from fluctuations.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yu Wang
PY  - 2016/05
DA  - 2016/05
TI  - Influence of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member Countries and Observer Countries
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Education, Management and Computer Science
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1050
EP  - 1056
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icemc-16.2016.206
DO  - 10.2991/icemc-16.2016.206
ID  - Wang2016/05
ER  -