Volume 9, Issue 3, October 2019, Pages 128 - 133
A Critique of Pandemic Catastrophe Modeling
Authors
Daniel J. Rozell*
Department of Technology and Society, 1432 Computer Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3760, USA
*Corresponding author. Email: Daniel.Rozell@stonybrook.edu
Corresponding Author
Daniel J. Rozell
Received 12 August 2019, Accepted 30 August 2019, Available Online 31 October 2019.
- DOI
- 10.2991/jracr.k.191024.002How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- Catastrophe modeling; pandemics; uncertainty; insurance; risk assessment
- Abstract
Catastrophe modeling is a popular risk assessment tool for the insurance industry and has been applied to a variety of natural disaster events. More recently, catastrophe modeling techniques have been extended to events, such as pandemics, where the range of possible scenarios is less understood due to the complexity of the hazard and the dependence of event magnitude to human response. Some general limitations of catastrophe modeling are discussed in the context of pandemics—such as the failure to distinguish natural variability from incertitude and the difficulty of ensuring a representative model—along with recommendations for minimizing surprises.
- Copyright
- © 2019 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
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TY - JOUR AU - Daniel J. Rozell PY - 2019 DA - 2019/10/31 TI - A Critique of Pandemic Catastrophe Modeling JO - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response SP - 128 EP - 133 VL - 9 IS - 3 SN - 2210-8505 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.191024.002 DO - 10.2991/jracr.k.191024.002 ID - Rozell2019 ER -