Proceedings of the Soedirman International Conference on Mathematics and Applied Sciences (SICOMAS 2021)

# The Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Modeling in Banyumas Regency by Using CAR-BYM, Generalized Poisson, and Negative Binomial

Authors
Jajang Jajang1, *, Budi Pratikno1, Mashuri Mashuri1, Indriani Eko Cahyarini1
1,Department of Mathematics, University of Jenderal Soedirman
*Corresponding author. Email: jajang@unsoed.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Jajang Jajang
Available Online 25 May 2022.
DOI
10.2991/apr.k.220503.007How to use a DOI?
Keywords
relative risk; disease mapping; CAR-BYM; generalized Poisson; negative binomial
Abstract

The research studied disease mapping of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Banyumas Regency. The generalized Poisson (GP), negative binomial (NB), and CAR-BYM models are then used to modelling the DHF. The predictor variables used in this research are the number of health worker, altitude, and population density. We choose the best model for further analysis and estimate relative risk. The criteria for choosing the best model is root mean square error (RMSE). The result showed that the CAR-BYM is the best model. This is due to the RMSE of CAR-BYS is the lowest (1.65) among others (GP = 3.17 and NB=3.25). Here, we also presented several analysis of the region case, such as Kembaran District is the highest of DFH. The West Purwokerto is the highest relative risk value. This mean that transmission DHF in West Purwokerto district is highest. We also found that the lowest relative risk value is Gumelar. This mean that transmission DHF in Gumelar district is the lowest.

Open Access

Volume Title
Proceedings of the Soedirman International Conference on Mathematics and Applied Sciences (SICOMAS 2021)
Series
Publication Date
25 May 2022
ISBN
10.2991/apr.k.220503.007
ISSN
2352-541X
DOI
10.2991/apr.k.220503.007How to use a DOI?
Open Access

TY  - CONF
AU  - Jajang Jajang
AU  - Budi Pratikno
AU  - Mashuri Mashuri
AU  - Indriani Eko Cahyarini
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/05/25
TI  - The Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Modeling in Banyumas Regency by Using CAR-BYM, Generalized Poisson, and Negative Binomial
BT  - Proceedings of the Soedirman International Conference on Mathematics and Applied Sciences (SICOMAS 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 31
EP  - 36
SN  - 2352-541X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/apr.k.220503.007
DO  - 10.2991/apr.k.220503.007
ID  - Jajang2022
ER  -