Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis Applied to a Heavy Rainfall Event in Beijing

DOI

10.2991/seeie-19.2019.30How to use a DOI?

Keywords

ensemble sensitivity analysis; heavy rainfall; ensemble prediction system

Abstract

A high-impact heavy rainfall event occurred in Beijing, China on 16 July 2018, which is a typical warm sector heavy rainfall associated with Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) of multi cells. To clarify the key factors influencing the heavy rainfall, ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is conducted using the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. The ESA is a new efficient tool utilizing the information contained in ensemble forecast to calculate a linear relationship between a forecast metric and model perturbation variable. Results show that the low-level southwestly moist flow plays a significant role in the heavy rainfall in Beijing which is favorable for abundant water vapor and dynamic lifting.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yunqian Guo
AU  - Yi Wang
AU  - Kan Dai
AU  - Xiaomei Zhang
AU  - Yueting Shen
PY  - 2019/05
DA  - 2019/05
TI  - Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis Applied to a Heavy Rainfall Event in Beijing
BT  - Proceedings of the 2019 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Energy, Environment and Information Engineering (SEEIE 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 132
EP  - 135
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/seeie-19.2019.30
DO  - 10.2991/seeie-19.2019.30
ID  - Guo2019/05
ER  -