Optimal Investment Model for New Technology Project

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.200730.073How to use a DOI?

Keywords

optimality, single-product model, project, strategy

Abstract

One of the most important directions in the study of the behavior of dynamic models in economy is the analysis of effective trajectories, i.e. the analysis of their common properties, not depending on the trajectory, but determined only by the dynamic model. This approach makes it possible to make long-term forecasts and analyze long-term growth rates and structural changes in the economy, to form a perspective view of the general features of behavior in the economy sector. The theoretical basis for such an analysis is the asymptotic (well-known at infinity horizon) properties of the finite sections of the effective trajectories found in solving the stationary problem that are widely known in economic dynamics. The subject of the study is a project model that allows full analysis of the possibility of investing in innovative technologies in enterprises. The aim of the work is to substantiate the possibility of using a probabilistic approach to build a single-product model of transients using a new technology. In the work, the problem of substantiating investment investments in the project of transition from the used (old) technology to the new one with a higher growth rate for the case of a one-dimensional model is solved. It was assumed that the transition was spasmodic at the time the accumulated investment reached a certain threshold value, which is a random variable. As a result of the study, the following significant points were formulated and determined: the optimal investment strategy was formulated as a function of the current “state” of the system, it was substantiated that there was a probability of three types of trajectory behavior, determined by the relationships between growth rates, and the presence of a “risk area” was established, in the event of a hit in which the system is very likely to come to complete destructuring. The paper provides an overview of literary sources in the subject area, as well as an economic interpretation of the results.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - M.L. Lapshina
AU  - V.E. Sukhova
AU  - N.A. Safonova
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/08/01
TI  - Optimal Investment Model for New Technology Project
BT  - Proceedings of the Russian Conference on Digital Economy and Knowledge Management (RuDEcK 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 399
EP  - 406
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200730.073
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.200730.073
ID  - Lapshina2020
ER  -