Model for Predicting Electrical Energy Consumption Using ARIMA Method

DOI

10.2991/aer.k.211106.047How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Prediction; Electrical Energy Consumption; ARIMA; Prediction Period

Abstract

The growth of the human population and technology has led to a rapid increase in electrical energy consumption. Excess electrical energy would be detrimental to the provider, whereas providing less would be detrimental to the consumers. One method for reducing these losses is to forecast the amount of electrical energy that must be available to meet demand. Prediction results can help with three types of decisions, depending on the prediction period: operational decisions (short-term), tactical decisions (medium-term), and strategic decisions (long-term). Short-term forecasts are less relevant given the urgency of the situation. This study aims to help electricity providers to make decisions by making medium and long-term predictions using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. In the best order determination experiment, ARIMA (8,2,0) was found to be the best model with the smallest error. ARIMA (8,2,0) has an average percentage error of 5.3 percent based on the overall prediction results. There is no linearity between accuracy and prediction period in the prediction period experiment. According to the experimental results, the highest accuracy is obtained in the medium term (monthly) with a value of RMSE 753,983.98. As a result, based on the time period, ARIMA is the best for tactical decisions (medium-term) regarding electrical energy consumption.

Copyright

© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Muhammad Ridwan Fathin
AU  - Yudi Widhiyasana
AU  - Nurjannah Syakrani
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/11/23
TI  - Model for Predicting Electrical Energy Consumption Using ARIMA Method
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Seminar of Science and Applied Technology (ISSAT 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 298
EP  - 303
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211106.047
DO  - 10.2991/aer.k.211106.047
ID  - Fathin2021
ER  -