The Analysis of the Selection Criteria of the Optimal Model of the Dynamics in the Case of Extrapolative Forecasting for Short Time Series

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.200312.177How to use a DOI?

Abstract

Selection of the optimal dynamics model in the case of extrapolation forecasting by short time series. Article describes the technology of choosing the optimal model of the dynamics of key indicators of the youth labour market of the Russian Federation using extrapolation forecasting by short time series. It is done based on a small amount of retrospective data (2015-2018). Using SPSS data analysis package five trend models were constructed for each indicator, for which basic explanations were prescribed (based on the nature of the traceable dynamics, the considered indicators are divided into separate types: indicators, in the growth dynamics of which a slowdown is observed; indicators, in the growth dynamics of which an acceleration is observed; indicators, in the recession dynamics of which a slowdown is observed; indicators, in the recession dynamics of which an acceleration is observed; linear and polynomial (quadratic) models are competing to approximate the dynamics of the considered indicators of all types; to approximate short time series for extrapolation purposes, polynomial, including quadratic models cannot be used in most cases, because the nature of their behavior is unpredictable even in the short-term forecast), allowing identification of models suitable for each indicator. They allowed subsequently calculating the results of their point-by-point forecasts for 2020. It is concluded that it is important to select the optimal model that will ensure the most probable forecast, while taking into account the fact that it is not always suitable for short-term forecasting.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - E A Polishchuk
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/03/17
TI  - The Analysis of the Selection Criteria of the Optimal Model of the Dynamics in the Case of Extrapolative Forecasting for Short Time Series
BT  - Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference "Far East Con" (ISCFEC 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1290
EP  - 1294
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200312.177
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.200312.177
ID  - Polishchuk2020
ER  -