Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)

Correspondence between Turning Points in Trend of Oil Price and Business Cycles in Japan

Authors
Koki Kyo, Hideo Noda
Corresponding Author
Koki Kyo
Available Online December 2016.
DOI
10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87How to use a DOI?
Keywords
oil price; business cycle; turning points; Japanese economy; state space model
Abstract

Oil price is crucial to understanding economic fluctuations in Japan. In this paper, we decompose the time series of oil price in the period from January 1971 to December 2012 into a long-term tendency (also called trend) and short-term variation, which is expressed by an autoregressive model. The correspondence between the turning points in the trend of oil price and business cycles in Japan is then analyzed. Particularly, after the 2000s, a clear relationship exists between turning points in the trend of real oil price and business cycles. Our results suggest that we can obtain useful information about Japanese business conditions by forecasting the trend of oil price.

Copyright
© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
December 2016
ISBN
978-94-6252-293-0
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Koki Kyo
AU  - Hideo Noda
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Correspondence between Turning Points in Trend of Oil Price and Business Cycles in Japan
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 388
EP  - 393
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87
DO  - 10.2991/icsd-16.2017.87
ID  - Kyo2016/12
ER  -