Research on Medium and Long Term Energy Demand Forecast underNew Urbanization

DOI

10.2991/icsd-16.2017.80How to use a DOI?

Keywords

New urbanization; Model system; Computable general equilibrium model; Energy demand

Abstract

The "national new urbanization plan (2014 - 2020)" was promulgated in China in 2014, will have a profound impact on medium and long term energy demand in China. This paper put forward economy-energy-environmental model system, set up two scenarios (baseline scenario and new urbanization scenario), analyzed and forecast the long-term China's energy demand and structure. The model system includes Macroeconomic Forecast model (MEF), Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), Final Energy Demand Forecast model (FEDF), Energy System Optimization model (ESO). Besides, a data-transmission mechanism was established. Scenario analysis results show that the model system can simulate the impact of the new urbanization policies on economy, energy, analyze the relationship between economy and energy, and then forecast the medium and long term energy demand. New urbanization will make energy consumption less and energy structure cleaner, relative to the baseline scenario. In 2030primary energy demand will reach 5490million tons coal equivalent in new urbanization scenario, 630 million tons coal equivalent less than in baseline scenario.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Bao-Guo Shan
AU  - Cheng-Long Zhang
AU  - Ding Ma
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Research on Medium and Long Term Energy Demand Forecast underNew Urbanization
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 360
EP  - 362
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icsd-16.2017.80
DO  - 10.2991/icsd-16.2017.80
ID  - Shan2016/12
ER  -