Analysis of the Main Causes of the Imbalance of International Payments and Risk Prediction
Shaowei Huang, Jixiang Zhang
Available Online January 2017.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/icefs-17.2017.59How to use a DOI?
- Balance of international payments, Risk forecast, Principal component analysis
- As an important variable of national economy, the balance of payments reflects the transnational flow of physical resources. Therefore, it is very important to predict the risk of the imbalance of international payments. Based on the balance of payments data from 2003 to 2012 in China, this paper uses the method of principal component analysis to predict the risk of China's international balance of payments. According to the analysis, three principal components are obtained, which show the relationship among the balance of payments risk and the trade balance, the money supply and the foreign net assets. Based on the results of principal component analysis and the international balance of payments risk index and its critical value, this paper provides some suggestions for the management of the imbalance risk of international payments in china.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Shaowei Huang AU - Jixiang Zhang PY - 2017/01 DA - 2017/01 TI - Analysis of the Main Causes of the Imbalance of International Payments and Risk Prediction BT - 2017 International Conference on Economics, Finance and Statistics (ICEFS 2017) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 449 EP - 455 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/icefs-17.2017.59 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/icefs-17.2017.59 ID - Huang2017/01 ER -