Decision model for project bidding based on information diffusion
- https://doi.org/10.2991/iccahe-16.2016.159How to use a DOI?
- bidding decision; information diffusion; probabilities estimation; profit expectations
A decision model for construction enterprises is proposed in view of lack of data and uncertainty of quantitative relation existing in bidding decision. The ratio of bidding price of an opponent to the cost estimation of decision maker is regarded as random variable, and historical data of the ratio are diffused to monitoring points through the normal diffusion function. The probabilities and exceeding probabilities of monitoring points are estimated using the information diffusion results. Furthermore, the probability distributions of decision maker's bidding price being lower than opponent's are acquired, and profit expectations with different bidding prices of decision maker are figured out as the basis of bidding decision. The model is able to deal with bidding decision of single or multiple opponents. The case study illustrates the feasibility of this model. Finally, a new bidding decision method utilizing small sample data is presented in the paper.
- © 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - J.P. Li AU - W.X. Chen AU - H.Y. Yang AU - J.S. Wang PY - 2016/10 DA - 2016/10 TI - Decision model for project bidding based on information diffusion BT - Proceedings of the 2016 5th International Conference on Civil, Architectural and Hydraulic Engineering (ICCAHE 2016) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 1020 EP - 1027 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccahe-16.2016.159 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccahe-16.2016.159 ID - Li2016/10 ER -