Exploring the Impact of China’s Labor Force Changes on Economic Growth: A Quantitative Study

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-064-0_29How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Labor Force Population; Economic Growth; Historical Growth Accounting Method

Abstract

Trends in labour force changes can have a powerful impact on macroeconomic growth. The persistently low population growth rate in China has become a matter of immediate concern for policymakers and academics. Based on the data of the communiqué of the seventh population census of China and the National Bureau of Statistics, this article uses the historical growth accounting method and regression analysis to explore the changes in the labour force. It is decomposed into three contributing factors through deduction by the formula: growth in labour productivity, growth in the size of the working-age population and in the efficiency of labour utilisation, which can lead to the exploration of its impact on economic growth. The Change characteristics, rates and trends of the three factors can reveal their contribution and effects on GDP growth from 2001 to 2020. On this basis, using linear analysis can prove the correlation and coefficient of each factor and GDP growth rate. The results demonstrate that all three factors can influence China’s economic growth. The increase in labour productivity has been the main driver of China’s economic growth over the past 20 years. Its growth has reduced in recent years, which indicated a slowdown in China’s future economic development. While the effect of labour utilization efficiency is negative. The downward tendency of labour utilization efficiency in the future may be caused by the reduction of labour force participation rate and working hours, which is relevant to the size of the working-age population. The above findings of this article can be used to assist shape future policy recommendations.

Copyright

© 2023 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaochen Han
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/27
TI  - Exploring the Impact of China’s Labor Force Changes on Economic Growth: A Quantitative Study
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 3rd International Conference on Big Data and Social Sciences (ICBDSS 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 247
EP  - 257
SN  - 2589-4900
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-064-0_29
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-064-0_29
ID  - Han2022
ER  -