Crude Oil Market Pricing Mechanism analysis and Simulation

DOI

10.2991/icassr.2013.16How to use a DOI?

Keywords

chaos, market model, simulation, forecast.

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate chaos characteristics of different time in oil market and to forecast price of oil in short term. Method of Lyapunov exponent estimating and V-Statistics were utilized to estimate chaos degree and non-period cycle length, and an oil market model developed by the author was also utilized to simulate mechanism of oil price pricing process. The result shows that during the past 27 years, chaos characteristics had been reduced in oil market, but the price series enhanced its trend than before. In the case of simulation and forecasting, result shows that the oil market model can simulate the pricing process exactly. So the oil market model can be utilized to simulate the market pricing process, and forecast the price for decision making.

Copyright

© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xingchen Zheng
PY  - 2013/08
DA  - 2013/08
TI  - Crude Oil Market Pricing Mechanism analysis and Simulation
BT  - Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Applied Social Science Research (ICASSR-2013)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 52
EP  - 55
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icassr.2013.16
DO  - 10.2991/icassr.2013.16
ID  - Zheng2013/08
ER  -