ISES-Dynamics: A Hybrid Simulation Framework Integrating Fault Tree, Agent-Based, and Electro-Thermal Models

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-793-4_25How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Risk Analysis; Ferry Safety; Shipboard Electrical Infrastructure; ISES-Dynamics; FMEA; Technico-Operational Integration

Abstract

Electrical system failures represent a critical catalyst for catastrophic maritime accidents within Roll-On/Roll-Off (RoRo) passenger ferries, particularly inside high-ambient-temperature engine room environments. This study develops and validates ISES-Dynamics (Integrated Ship Electrical Safety Dynamics), a novel hybrid simulation framework that seamlessly couples Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis (DFTA), Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), and Electro-Thermal Finite Element Analysis (ET-FEA) to comprehensively assess and optimize shipboard electrical safety infrastructures. Employing a robust concurrent embedded mixed-methods design across three operational passenger ferries at Bajoe Port, Indonesia, this empirical investigation merges rigorous field engineering observations, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), quantitative crew questionnaires, qualitative deep-structured interviews, and stochastic Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline empirical findings reveal systemic vulnerabilities: widespread deployment of non-standard polyvinyl chloride (PVC) insulated cables within engine rooms exceeding critical thermal thresholds (≥35℃), severely disorganized cable routing management, substandard illumination levels (<20 Lux), and functional failure of automatic generator synchronization and emergency systems. Quantitative FMEA models identified catastrophic generator failure (RPN = 224) and high-temperature PVC insulation short-circuiting (RPN = 216) as the highest risk vectors. Operationally, 85% of shipboard personnel receive mandatory emergency safety training only once annually, leaving 70% entirely unconfident in mitigating catastrophic blackout events. Predictive hybrid simulations demonstrate that retrofitting with cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) or low-smoke zero-halogen (LSZH) insulation, enforcing a strict 40% cable-tray fill capacity factor, and institutionalizing monthly high-fidelity emergency drills structurally reduces critical blackout probability from 22.0% down to 2.5%, establishing that technico-operational integration is critical to ensuring marine safety.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Rukmini Rukmini
AU  - Antoni Arif Priadi
AU  - Andi Haris Muhammad
AU  - Muhammad Saleh
AU  - Sukur Arsyad
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/16
TI  - ISES-Dynamics: A Hybrid Simulation Framework Integrating Fault Tree, Agent-Based, and Electro-Thermal Models
BT  - Proceedings of the  International Conference on Advanced Maritime Interconnection (ICAMI 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 331
EP  - 350
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-793-4_25
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-793-4_25
ID  - Rukmini2026
ER  -