Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Business Administration and Data Science (BADS 2022)

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Research on the Gold Price Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Models

Authors
Yiqi Xin1, *
1CUHK Business School, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, 999077, China
*Corresponding author. Email: 1155157055@link.cuhk.edu.hk
Corresponding Author
Yiqi Xin
Available Online 29 December 2022.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-102-9_138How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Machine Learning; Gold Price; ARIMA; Decision tree; Multi-Linear Regression
Abstract

In recent years, time series data analysis has been attracting much attention and can be applied to financial forecasting. As gold market can be used to manage investment risk, many methods that focus on time characteristics have been introduced to predicting the gold price. This study attempts to use auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), Decision tree model and Multi-Linear Regression model to predict the close price of gold AU99.99. The study uses root mean square error (RMSE) and R-sq to evaluate the practicability of the model. The results indicate that ARIMA (2,1,2) is not suitable to predict the price of AU99.99. Moreover, the Muti-Linear Regression model is the most suitable model for forecasting next day’s close price. The effective model of this study is important to investors to understand and forecast the trend of gold market in time which raises the yield on the trade.

Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Business Administration and Data Science (BADS 2022)
Series
Atlantis Highlights in Computer Sciences
Publication Date
29 December 2022
ISBN
10.2991/978-94-6463-102-9_138
ISSN
2589-4900
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-102-9_138How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Yiqi Xin
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/29
TI  - Research on the Gold Price Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Models
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Business Administration and Data Science (BADS 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1339
EP  - 1346
SN  - 2589-4900
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-102-9_138
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-102-9_138
ID  - Xin2022
ER  -