Is one time-series in the business tendency survey able to predict another one? Granger causality between time series

DOI

10.2991/amse-19.2019.5How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Business Tendency Survey (BTS), confidence indicator, short-term statistics, base of basic indices

Abstract

A Business Tendency Survey (BTS) is one of popular instruments used for providing rough forecasts of future conditions of the national economy. Economists, journalists and analysts are not the only ones interested in the future development of the economy; ordinary citizens are also attentive to such forecasts. The Czech Statistical Office publishes results of the BTS in two forms: balance, and basic indices, respectively. The paper focuses on the base of basic indices, and investigates why the base is different for different European countries and protracts attention to a related question whether a point estimate such as a base year or long-term average is suitable for the Czech Republic. The aim of the paper is to find the most suitable base for the Czech Republic in terms of getting the tightest match between the obtained and predicted values of economic indicators. Findings from this study should be important for obtaining better predictions and enhancing capabilities of the BTS.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Veronika Ptáčková
AU  - Lubomír Štěpánek
AU  - Vít Hanzal
PY  - 2019/10
DA  - 2019/10
TI  - Is one time-series in the business tendency survey able to predict another one? Granger causality between time series
BT  - Proceedings of the 22nd International Scientific Conference on Applications of Mathematics and Statistics in Economics (AMSE 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 39
EP  - 48
SN  - 2589-6644
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/amse-19.2019.5
DO  - 10.2991/amse-19.2019.5
ID  - Ptáčková2019/10
ER  -