Volume 7, Issue 3, October 2017, Pages 137 - 145
Time Limit of the Probabilistic Risk for Natural Disaster
Jun Guo, Chongfu Huang
Received 14 June 2017, Accepted 21 July 2017, Available Online 2 October 2017.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/jrarc.2017.7.3.4How to use a DOI?
- Natural disaster, Probabilistic risk, Time limit, Period of validity
- Since natural disaster risk is a feature of the future and is also dynamic, the result of probabilistic risk analysis for natural disaster has its own time limit. Considering that risk is for the future and meanwhile dynamic, the result of probabilistic risk analysis in natural disaster could just represent risk for a limited time, which is the timeliness of probabilistic risk. Besides, the length of the timeliness is just called the period of validity of probabilistic risk for natural disaster. Because the system of natural disaster risk is complex and comprehensive, the dynamics of natural disaster risk is caused by numerous reasons related to both natural and social environment and is with great uncertainty. Therefore, qualitative analysis could be a feasible method for the timeliness evaluation of probabilistic risk for natural disaster.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - JOUR AU - Jun Guo AU - Chongfu Huang PY - 2017 DA - 2017/10/02 TI - Time Limit of the Probabilistic Risk for Natural Disaster JO - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response SP - 137 EP - 145 VL - 7 IS - 3 SN - 2210-8505 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jrarc.2017.7.3.4 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/jrarc.2017.7.3.4 ID - Guo2017 ER -