An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Property Insurance Premiums and Macroeconomic Variables Based on ARDL Model

DOI

10.2991/jrarc.2014.4.3.6How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Insurance Premiums, Macroeconomic Variables, ARDL model

Abstract

Given that most of property insurance policies are one-year contracts and have a high renewal, this paper establishes Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) which considers adding lags of the dependent variable and/or lags of some independent variables. Based on the data of Insurance Premiums in China, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Fixed-asset Investment during the period from 1980 to 2012, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term relationships between them with method of the ARDL bounds testing approach. The results indicate that GDP is the major factor driving the growth of property insurance premiums in China; fixed-asset investment has significant impact on Chinese property insurance premiums, and they show the conspicuous negative correlation; Moreover, CPI has little effect on the premium income.

Copyright

© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - JOUR
AU  - Guiyun You
AU  - Shanshan Cao
AU  - Jing Feng
AU  - Shu Yu
PY  - 2014
DA  - 2014/09/30
TI  - An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Property Insurance Premiums and Macroeconomic Variables Based on ARDL Model
JO  - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
SP  - 175
EP  - 181
VL  - 4
IS  - 3
SN  - 2210-8505
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jrarc.2014.4.3.6
DO  - 10.2991/jrarc.2014.4.3.6
ID  - You2014
ER  -