Estimating the Effect of AfCFTA on Intra-African Trade using Augmented GE-PPML

DOI

10.2991/jat.k.211122.001How to use a DOI?

Keywords

AfCFTA; GEPPML; International trade agreements; CGE; MRT; RTA

Abstract

This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise intra-African trade by 24% in the short term and slightly more in the long run. However, the potential trade and welfare gains associated with the continental trade integration reform are expected to vary across countries, with the largest gains accruing to countries that exhibit relatively low intra-regional trade performance and level of integration pre-AfCFTA.

Copyright

© 2021 African Export-Import Bank. Publishing services by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hippolyte Fofack
AU  - Richman Dzene
AU  - Omar A. Mohsen Hussein
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/12/31
TI  - Estimating the Effect of AfCFTA on Intra-African Trade using Augmented GE-PPML
JO  - Journal of African Trade
SP  - 62
EP  - 76
VL  - 8
IS  - 2 (Special Issue)
SN  - 2214-8523
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jat.k.211122.001
DO  - 10.2991/jat.k.211122.001
ID  - Fofack2021
ER  -