Analysis of Demographic Pressure on Nature

DOI

10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.22How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Population of the Earth; demographic pressure; sustainable development; forecasting the population growth; consequences of demographic pressure; convergence and divergence of social processes.

Abstract

The article evaluates the demographic pressure on nature. Demographic pressure on nature means the development of anthropogenic factors, caused by an increase in population and, consequently, by increased production and growth of the agrosphere. Analysis of demographic pressure on nature includes the following procedures: forecasting the population growth; forecasting the necessary growth in production and the necessary growth of the agrosphere; prediction of anthropogenic pressure; analysis of the consequences of demographic pressure; analysis of the possibility of a stable and balanced development of the world economy in conditions of demographic pressure; technological, economic opportunities and the limits of production growth in conditions of demographic pressure; assessment of countries in terms of socio-demographic risk. The general principles and the scheme of the analysis and forecasting of demographic pressure are developed. The results of forecasting the growth of the population according to three scenarios - pessimistic, optimistic and average, are stated. Together with the growth of the population, humankind will face a need to increase production. The forecast of growth of consumption for one inhabitant of the USA up to 2050 is made. It is defined if it is necessary to increase manufacture in the world if the world consumption level will be like in the USA. For comparison, a realistic forecast for the growth of the total world domestic product was compiled. The article outlines the consequences of demographic pressure: social, economic and environmental. An estimation of countries in terms of convergence and divergence of indicators of social processes development in conditions of demographic pressure is shown.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - N.I. Didenko
AU  - D. F. Skripnuk
AU  - K. N. Kikkas
PY  - 2017/06
DA  - 2017/06
TI  - Analysis of Demographic Pressure on Nature
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Trends of Technologies and Innovations in Economic and Social Studies 2017
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 126
EP  - 131
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.22
DO  - 10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.22
ID  - Didenko2017/06
ER  -