Selection of Ship Traffic Accidents Forecasting Models in Downstream Waterway of Yangtze River

DOI

10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Waterway safety, accidents forecasting, Poisson models, analysis

Abstract

In order to explore the key factors causing vessel traffic accidents, historical accident data and vessel traffic data at 9 waterways of Yangtze River in Jiangsu are employed, and the accidents are verified to follow lognormal distribution. Five Poisson-lognormal accident forecasting models are established taking the vessel traffic accidents from 2009 to 2014 as dependent variables and vessel traffic, waterway length, and design consistency (including waterway depth, waterway width, curvature changing rate, vessel speed difference and vessel speed changing rate) as explanatory variables. Among the five models, the one with vessel speed changing rate as design consistency measure has the best effect.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Shukui Zhang
AU  - Keyin Miao
AU  - Jing Li
PY  - 2018/06
DA  - 2018/06
TI  - Selection of Ship Traffic Accidents Forecasting Models in Downstream Waterway of Yangtze River
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Sports, Arts, Education and Management Engineering (SAEME 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 256
EP  - 260
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47
DO  - 10.2991/saeme-18.2018.47
ID  - Zhang2018/06
ER  -