Proceedings of the 11th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2024)
Conference: Proceedings of the 11th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2024)
Date: 16-17 November 2024
Location: Shenzhen, China (offline)
Website: http://www.zaihai.cn/html/gongzuodongtai/tongzhigonggao/20241103/6726daeba7814fd4fc4fd9f1.html The Risk Analysis Professional Committee of the China Association for Disaster Prevention was registered by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China on September 12, 2003, and officially established in Beijing in August 2004. As a national academic organization dedicated to multidisciplinary risk analysis research in China, it shoulders the important responsibility of broadly uniting risk researchers from all sectors and continuously enhancing the nation's capabilities in risk analysis and risk management. At present, the world is undergoing accelerated changes unseen in a century, facing multiple risks and challenges. China's risk researchers and managers bear a significant responsibility of their time to scientifically analyze risks, minimize or effectively mitigate them, ensure social stability and economic development, and enable China to continue serving as a global growth engine. To continuously advance academic research in risk analysis and management in China, promote the application of related technologies, and enhance the role of new productive forces in the security domain, the China Association for Disaster Prevention's Risk Analysis Professional Committee has successfully convened ten annual conferences: in Beijing (2004), Chengdu (2006), Guangzhou (2008), Changchun (2010), Nanjing (2012), Hohhot (2014), Changsha in 2016, Xi'an in 2018, Tianjin in 2020, and Beijing in 2022, the Risk Analysis Professional Committee of the China Association for Disaster Prevention successfully convened its 11th Annual Conference in October 2024 in Shenzhen—a pioneer of China's reform and opening-up. This conference was jointly hosted by the Department of Earth and Space Sciences and the Institute of Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Management at Southern University of Science and Technology. Southern University of Science and Technology is a public research university established in Shenzhen with high standards and aspirations, set against the backdrop of China's higher education reform and development. On February 14, 2022, the Ministry of Education and two other ministries announced the list of universities and disciplines selected for the second round of the “Double First-Class” initiative. SUSTech and its mathematics discipline were included in this list. Drawing inspiration from world-class science and engineering universities, SUSTech has established a disciplinary framework centered on science, engineering, and medicine, complemented by business studies and distinctive humanities and social sciences. Offering programs at the undergraduate, master's, and doctoral levels, the university conducts research in a range of emerging disciplines, positioning itself as a think tank driving societal progress and a source of new knowledge and technologies. Rooted in China, USTC seizes the historic opportunities presented by the dual-zone drive of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Shenzhen Pilot Demonstration Zone, as well as the dual-zone synergy of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and the Shenzhen Pilot Demonstration Zone. Upholding its founding spirit of “daring to pioneer, seeking truth and pragmatism, reform and innovation, and pursuing excellence,” USTC emphasizes its distinctive educational focus on “knowledge creation, innovation, and entrepreneurship.” It embodies the spirit of its motto, “Integrity and Truth-Seeking, Daily Renewal and Self-Strengthening,” striving to serve the development of an innovative nation and rapidly establishing itself as innovation, and entrepreneurship,“ and embodying the spirit of its motto, ”Integrity and Truth-Seeking, Daily Renewal and Self-Strengthening." It is dedicated to serving the nation's innovation-driven development, rapidly evolving into an internationally competitive research university that attracts world-class faculty, cultivates top-tier innovative talent, produces globally leading academic achievements, and advances the application of science and technology. These efforts lay a solid foundation for achieving the grand vision of becoming a world-class research university at the earliest possible date. The Department of Earth and Space Sciences at Southern University of Science and Technology was established in January 2017, with Professor Chen Xiaofei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, serving as its Chair. The department's mission is to build an international, world-class hub for training talent and conducting research in Earth and space sciences, advancing humanity's deep exploration and understanding of the dynamic laws governing Earth and its surrounding complex natural systems. The department is committed to addressing critical challenges facing human society in natural environments, resources, and disasters. It provides scientific foundations to support interplanetary space exploration while cultivating innovative academic leaders and managerial elites to advance the future development of Earth and space sciences. The Southern University of Science and Technology Institute for Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Management is a joint research institute established in 2019 by Southern University of Science and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich. Co-led by Professor Chen Xiaofei, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Head of the Department of Earth and Space Sciences at SUSTech, and Professor Didier Sornette, Academician of the European Academy of Sciences and the Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences, and Professor at ETH Zurich, Professor Didier Sornette of Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich. It is dedicated to building a revolutionary dynamic risk management platform. Based on interdisciplinary and data-driven approaches, the institute develops real-time dynamic monitoring, simulation, trend analysis, and early warning prediction tools to address extreme risks in various natural and social systems. Key research areas include natural disaster risk, financial risk, resilient cities, and the construction of risk transfer systems—all highly interdisciplinary fields. The theme of this year's conference is Risk Analysis and Management in a Century of Great Change. Coinciding with the 20th anniversary of the Risk Analysis Professional Committee, The conference garnered enthusiastic participation from scholars, experts, engineers, government officials, and entrepreneurs engaged in risk analysis research, technological development, crisis response, and emergency management. Attendees actively submitted papers and engaged in academic exchanges covering earthquake hazards, geological hazards, agricultural disasters, ecological risks, meteorological hazards, financial risks, workplace safety risks, occupational health risks, wellness industry risks, and integrated risk management. The conference received a total of 84 abstract submissions. During the event, 13 plenary keynote presentations were organized, alongside 73 academic presentations across five parallel sessions. These presentations reflected recent advancements in both fundamental and applied research within the field of risk analysis, showcasing a range of outstanding achievements in risk analysis and risk management. The proceedings of this conference now include 33 full papers that were submitted and rigorously reviewed. We take this opportunity to express our heartfelt gratitude to the China Association for Disaster Prevention for its guidance and support of this year's conference! We extend our sincere appreciation to the Department of Geospatial Sciences and the Institute of Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Management at Southern University of Science and Technology for hosting this conference! We also express our deep gratitude to the Key Laboratory of Geospatial Sciences at Southern University of Science and Technology and the Shenzhen Emergency Management Monitoring, Early Warning, and Command Center for providing academic research support! We extend our heartfelt gratitude to all authors and reviewers who submitted papers to this conference. We also sincerely thank all individuals who have shown interest and support for this event. Your active participation and contributions have ensured the quality of academic exchanges and papers at this conference, strengthened the transformation and application of scientific achievements in risk analysis, and continuously advanced the progress of risk analysis and risk management in our country. Finally, special thanks go to Researcher Liu Aiwen, Researcher Chen Xueliang, and Dr. Li Tiefei from the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, as well as Researcher Han Peng, Associate Professor Wu Ke, and Dr. Zhou Xun from Southern University of Science and Technology. We deeply appreciate their dedicated efforts in organizing this conference and editing the proceedings! Thank you! December 2024
Sen Qiao
Peng Han
Ke Wu
Location: Shenzhen, China (offline)
Website: http://www.zaihai.cn/html/gongzuodongtai/tongzhigonggao/20241103/6726daeba7814fd4fc4fd9f1.html The Risk Analysis Professional Committee of the China Association for Disaster Prevention was registered by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China on September 12, 2003, and officially established in Beijing in August 2004. As a national academic organization dedicated to multidisciplinary risk analysis research in China, it shoulders the important responsibility of broadly uniting risk researchers from all sectors and continuously enhancing the nation's capabilities in risk analysis and risk management. At present, the world is undergoing accelerated changes unseen in a century, facing multiple risks and challenges. China's risk researchers and managers bear a significant responsibility of their time to scientifically analyze risks, minimize or effectively mitigate them, ensure social stability and economic development, and enable China to continue serving as a global growth engine. To continuously advance academic research in risk analysis and management in China, promote the application of related technologies, and enhance the role of new productive forces in the security domain, the China Association for Disaster Prevention's Risk Analysis Professional Committee has successfully convened ten annual conferences: in Beijing (2004), Chengdu (2006), Guangzhou (2008), Changchun (2010), Nanjing (2012), Hohhot (2014), Changsha in 2016, Xi'an in 2018, Tianjin in 2020, and Beijing in 2022, the Risk Analysis Professional Committee of the China Association for Disaster Prevention successfully convened its 11th Annual Conference in October 2024 in Shenzhen—a pioneer of China's reform and opening-up. This conference was jointly hosted by the Department of Earth and Space Sciences and the Institute of Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Management at Southern University of Science and Technology. Southern University of Science and Technology is a public research university established in Shenzhen with high standards and aspirations, set against the backdrop of China's higher education reform and development. On February 14, 2022, the Ministry of Education and two other ministries announced the list of universities and disciplines selected for the second round of the “Double First-Class” initiative. SUSTech and its mathematics discipline were included in this list. Drawing inspiration from world-class science and engineering universities, SUSTech has established a disciplinary framework centered on science, engineering, and medicine, complemented by business studies and distinctive humanities and social sciences. Offering programs at the undergraduate, master's, and doctoral levels, the university conducts research in a range of emerging disciplines, positioning itself as a think tank driving societal progress and a source of new knowledge and technologies. Rooted in China, USTC seizes the historic opportunities presented by the dual-zone drive of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Shenzhen Pilot Demonstration Zone, as well as the dual-zone synergy of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and the Shenzhen Pilot Demonstration Zone. Upholding its founding spirit of “daring to pioneer, seeking truth and pragmatism, reform and innovation, and pursuing excellence,” USTC emphasizes its distinctive educational focus on “knowledge creation, innovation, and entrepreneurship.” It embodies the spirit of its motto, “Integrity and Truth-Seeking, Daily Renewal and Self-Strengthening,” striving to serve the development of an innovative nation and rapidly establishing itself as innovation, and entrepreneurship,“ and embodying the spirit of its motto, ”Integrity and Truth-Seeking, Daily Renewal and Self-Strengthening." It is dedicated to serving the nation's innovation-driven development, rapidly evolving into an internationally competitive research university that attracts world-class faculty, cultivates top-tier innovative talent, produces globally leading academic achievements, and advances the application of science and technology. These efforts lay a solid foundation for achieving the grand vision of becoming a world-class research university at the earliest possible date. The Department of Earth and Space Sciences at Southern University of Science and Technology was established in January 2017, with Professor Chen Xiaofei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, serving as its Chair. The department's mission is to build an international, world-class hub for training talent and conducting research in Earth and space sciences, advancing humanity's deep exploration and understanding of the dynamic laws governing Earth and its surrounding complex natural systems. The department is committed to addressing critical challenges facing human society in natural environments, resources, and disasters. It provides scientific foundations to support interplanetary space exploration while cultivating innovative academic leaders and managerial elites to advance the future development of Earth and space sciences. The Southern University of Science and Technology Institute for Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Management is a joint research institute established in 2019 by Southern University of Science and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich. Co-led by Professor Chen Xiaofei, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Head of the Department of Earth and Space Sciences at SUSTech, and Professor Didier Sornette, Academician of the European Academy of Sciences and the Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences, and Professor at ETH Zurich, Professor Didier Sornette of Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich. It is dedicated to building a revolutionary dynamic risk management platform. Based on interdisciplinary and data-driven approaches, the institute develops real-time dynamic monitoring, simulation, trend analysis, and early warning prediction tools to address extreme risks in various natural and social systems. Key research areas include natural disaster risk, financial risk, resilient cities, and the construction of risk transfer systems—all highly interdisciplinary fields. The theme of this year's conference is Risk Analysis and Management in a Century of Great Change. Coinciding with the 20th anniversary of the Risk Analysis Professional Committee, The conference garnered enthusiastic participation from scholars, experts, engineers, government officials, and entrepreneurs engaged in risk analysis research, technological development, crisis response, and emergency management. Attendees actively submitted papers and engaged in academic exchanges covering earthquake hazards, geological hazards, agricultural disasters, ecological risks, meteorological hazards, financial risks, workplace safety risks, occupational health risks, wellness industry risks, and integrated risk management. The conference received a total of 84 abstract submissions. During the event, 13 plenary keynote presentations were organized, alongside 73 academic presentations across five parallel sessions. These presentations reflected recent advancements in both fundamental and applied research within the field of risk analysis, showcasing a range of outstanding achievements in risk analysis and risk management. The proceedings of this conference now include 33 full papers that were submitted and rigorously reviewed. We take this opportunity to express our heartfelt gratitude to the China Association for Disaster Prevention for its guidance and support of this year's conference! We extend our sincere appreciation to the Department of Geospatial Sciences and the Institute of Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Management at Southern University of Science and Technology for hosting this conference! We also express our deep gratitude to the Key Laboratory of Geospatial Sciences at Southern University of Science and Technology and the Shenzhen Emergency Management Monitoring, Early Warning, and Command Center for providing academic research support! We extend our heartfelt gratitude to all authors and reviewers who submitted papers to this conference. We also sincerely thank all individuals who have shown interest and support for this event. Your active participation and contributions have ensured the quality of academic exchanges and papers at this conference, strengthened the transformation and application of scientific achievements in risk analysis, and continuously advanced the progress of risk analysis and risk management in our country. Finally, special thanks go to Researcher Liu Aiwen, Researcher Chen Xueliang, and Dr. Li Tiefei from the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, as well as Researcher Han Peng, Associate Professor Wu Ke, and Dr. Zhou Xun from Southern University of Science and Technology. We deeply appreciate their dedicated efforts in organizing this conference and editing the proceedings! Thank you! December 2024
Sen Qiao
Peng Han
Ke Wu