Possibilistic Risk and Counterfactual Probabilities
T. Whalen1, T. Taylor, M. Cohen
1Georgia State University
Available Online December 2008.
- 10.2991/jcis.2008.16How to use a DOI?
- possibility, risk analysis, counterfactuals, laboratory safety
Possibility theory is applied to assessing the relative risk associated with very rare, high-consequence hazards. The probability of rare negative events has to be estimated from a few past occurrences that are spread over long exposure periods, with counter- measures added in response to each event to attempt to guard against recurrence. Traditional risk assessments based on conditional probability and statistical expected value are very sensitive to the uncertainty associated with rare events. A new measure of possibility for events whose probability is not well measurably different from zero is proposed and illustrated in the context of possible release of hazardous material from a high containment research laboratory.
- © 2008, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - T. Whalen AU - T. Taylor AU - M. Cohen PY - 2008/12 DA - 2008/12 TI - Possibilistic Risk and Counterfactual Probabilities BT - Proceedings of the 11th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2008) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 94 EP - 99 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.16 DO - 10.2991/jcis.2008.16 ID - Whalen2008/12 ER -