Is Rate of Stock Returns a Leading Indicator of Output Growth? In the Case of Four East Asian Countries

DOI

10.2991/jcis.2006.78How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Threshold Vector Autoregressive, Stock Returns, Industrial Production Growth Rate, Causality, Generalized Impulse Response Function

Abstract

The link between stock returns and economic growth has been an important research topic in the financial economic literature. The purpose of this study is to employ a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) approach in order to investigate the non-linear relationship between stock returns and output growth in the four East Asian countries: Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Malaysia. The causality between the two under different stock returns regimes are also examined in this study. The empirical findings of this modest study indicate that there is an asymmetric relationship between stock returns and industrial production growth in the four East Asian countries. Finally, the findings from the generalized impulse response function of the VAR model reveal that each country’s stock market disturbance has a greater impulse effect on output growth under bad news regime than under good news regime.

Copyright

© 2006, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Pei-Fen Chen
AU  - Chien-Chiang Lee
AU  - Swee Yoong Wong
PY  - 2006/10
DA  - 2006/10
TI  - Is Rate of Stock Returns a Leading Indicator of Output Growth? In the Case of Four East Asian Countries
BT  - Proceedings of the 9th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS-06)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.78
DO  - 10.2991/jcis.2006.78
ID  - Chen2006/10
ER  -