Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model
Xiaofan Zhu, Xiaoming Zha, Liang Qin
Available Online March 2017.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/ifmca-16.2017.116How to use a DOI?
- Error distribution; Sectional exponential distribution; Parameter estimation
- In this paper, we use a piecewise exponential distribution model to predict the ultra short term wind power error and then estimate the parameters. The case we used is from Northern Ireland, we forecast the probability and precision of wind power on the basis of Normal distribution model, Laplace distribution model, Cauchy distribution model, Beta distribution model and the proposed piecewise exponential distribution model. The prediction error distribution model of the sub index wind power forecasting error can be used to mine the relative information of the actual error distribution, in addition, it's convenient to implement and easy to be used in calculus, it can be applied to describe the error distribution of the multiple time scale prediction, so it has more advantages in the error analysis.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Xiaofan Zhu AU - Xiaoming Zha AU - Liang Qin PY - 2017/03 DA - 2017/03 TI - Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model BT - Proceedings of the 2016 International Forum on Mechanical, Control and Automation (IFMCA 2016) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 747 EP - 752 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/ifmca-16.2017.116 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/ifmca-16.2017.116 ID - Zhu2017/03 ER -