Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model

DOI

10.2991/ifmca-16.2017.116How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Error distribution; Sectional exponential distribution; Parameter estimation

Abstract

In this paper, we use a piecewise exponential distribution model to predict the ultra short term wind power error and then estimate the parameters. The case we used is from Northern Ireland, we forecast the probability and precision of wind power on the basis of Normal distribution model, Laplace distribution model, Cauchy distribution model, Beta distribution model and the proposed piecewise exponential distribution model. The prediction error distribution model of the sub index wind power forecasting error can be used to mine the relative information of the actual error distribution, in addition, it's convenient to implement and easy to be used in calculus, it can be applied to describe the error distribution of the multiple time scale prediction, so it has more advantages in the error analysis.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaofan Zhu
AU  - Xiaoming Zha
AU  - Liang Qin
PY  - 2017/03
DA  - 2017/03
TI  - Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 International Forum on Mechanical, Control and Automation (IFMCA 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 747
EP  - 752
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ifmca-16.2017.116
DO  - 10.2991/ifmca-16.2017.116
ID  - Zhu2017/03
ER  -