Proceedings of the First International Conference on Progressive Civil Society (ICONPROCS 2019)

Forecasting the Number of Tourist Arrivals to Batam by applying the Singular Spectrum Analysis and the Arima Method

Authors
Agustinus Ete, Meita Fitrianawati, Muhammad Arifin
Corresponding Author
Agustinus Ete
Available Online May 2019.
DOI
10.2991/iconprocs-19.2019.24How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Singular Spectrum Analysis, Trend, Oscillatory, Noise, ARIMA
Abstract

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series method used to decompose the original time series into a sum of a small number of components that can be interpreted such as trends, oscillatory components, and noise. The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of the forecast between the SSA and ARIMA methods to obtain the best method in predicting the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia. The data used in this study is data on the number of arrivals of foreign tourists to Indonesia through the Batam entrance. The forecasting results obtained using the SSA method will be compared with the ARIMA method to assess its superiority. The level of forecasting accuracy generated by each method is measured by the criteria of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of the study show that the ARIMA method produces better forecast accuracy than the SSA method for forecasting the number of tourist arrivals through the Batam’s entrance. The MAPE value obtained from the results of forecasting using the ARIMA method is 9.83. The MAPE value obtained from the results of forecasting using the SSA method is 10.98.

Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the First International Conference on Progressive Civil Society (ICONPROCS 2019)
Series
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research
Publication Date
May 2019
ISBN
978-94-6252-726-3
ISSN
2352-5398
DOI
10.2991/iconprocs-19.2019.24How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Agustinus Ete
AU  - Meita Fitrianawati
AU  - Muhammad Arifin
PY  - 2019/05
DA  - 2019/05
TI  - Forecasting the Number of Tourist Arrivals to Batam by applying the Singular Spectrum Analysis and the Arima Method
BT  - Proceedings of the First International Conference on Progressive Civil Society (ICONPROCS 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 119
EP  - 126
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iconprocs-19.2019.24
DO  - 10.2991/iconprocs-19.2019.24
ID  - Ete2019/05
ER  -