Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Management Science and Software Engineering (ICMSSE 2022)

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Research on Risk Prediction of Modern Terrorist Attack Cooperation Event Based on Time Series

Authors
Zhiyu Chen1, Chaomin Ou1, *, Jinke Deng1, Donghao Cui1
1School of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Hunan Province, Changsha, China
*Corresponding author. Email: ouchm@163.com
Corresponding Author
Chaomin Ou
Available Online 29 December 2022.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-056-5_91How to use a DOI?
Keywords
contemporary terrorism; cooperation; terrorist organization networks; ARIMA model; risk prediction
ABSTRACT

In-depth study on the cooperative characteristics of modern terrorist attacks and prediction of their development trend is helpful to control risks, strengthen regional security management and improve the effectiveness of counter-terrorism. Based on the data of 192,212 terrorist attacks from 1970 to 2018 provided by the Global Terrorism Database, this paper selects cooperative terrorist attacks, analyzes their distribution regions, proportion changes and other characteristics, and further constructs the cooperative network of terrorist organizations, and finds that the connection relationship continues to become complicated. By constructing a time series model, this paper predicts the trend change of the risk of cooperative terrorist attacks, and obtains the theoretical prediction of two small increases in cooperative terrorist attacks in 10 years. Finally, the risk management of dealing with terrorism cooperation is put forward.

Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Management Science and Software Engineering (ICMSSE 2022)
Series
Atlantis Highlights in Computer Sciences
Publication Date
29 December 2022
ISBN
978-94-6463-056-5
ISSN
2589-4900
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-056-5_91How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Zhiyu Chen
AU  - Chaomin Ou
AU  - Jinke Deng
AU  - Donghao Cui
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/29
TI  - Research on Risk Prediction of Modern Terrorist Attack Cooperation Event Based on Time Series
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Management Science and Software Engineering (ICMSSE 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 621
EP  - 627
SN  - 2589-4900
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-056-5_91
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-056-5_91
ID  - Chen2022
ER  -