Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
- https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345How to use a DOI?
- Extreme Value Theory, Extreme Rainfall, Return Level, Typhoon Morakot
In this study, the annual maximum daily rainfall from 1911 to 2010 are modeled for 6 stations in Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, Hengchun, Hualien, and Taitung. We fit the rainfall data both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and further estimated future patterns based on the best fitted model. The non-stationary model used the location and scale parameter in the GEV distribution as a function of time to detect the temporal trend of the maximum rainfall. The results suggest that non-stationary GEV and Gumbel distribution provide best fit for Haulien and Taitung, respectively. The return levels of the stationary models for 4 stations and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) are provided. In addition, the return period of Typhoon Morakotis also calculated based on stationary models in this study.
- © 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Michael McAleer AU - Lanfen Chu PY - 2014/05 DA - 2014/05 TI - Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan BT - Proceedings of the 2012 2nd International Conference on Computer and Information Application (ICCIA 2012) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 1389 EP - 1392 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345 ID - McAleer2014/05 ER -