Proceedings of the 2012 2nd International Conference on Computer and Information Application (ICCIA 2012)

Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

Authors
Michael McAleer, Lanfen Chu
Corresponding Author
Michael McAleer
Available Online May 2014.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Extreme Value Theory, Extreme Rainfall, Return Level, Typhoon Morakot
Abstract

In this study, the annual maximum daily rainfall from 1911 to 2010 are modeled for 6 stations in Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, Hengchun, Hualien, and Taitung. We fit the rainfall data both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and further estimated future patterns based on the best fitted model. The non-stationary model used the location and scale parameter in the GEV distribution as a function of time to detect the temporal trend of the maximum rainfall. The results suggest that non-stationary GEV and Gumbel distribution provide best fit for Haulien and Taitung, respectively. The return levels of the stationary models for 4 stations and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) are provided. In addition, the return period of Typhoon Morakotis also calculated based on stationary models in this study.

Copyright
© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2012 2nd International Conference on Computer and Information Application (ICCIA 2012)
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
May 2014
ISBN
978-94-91216-41-1
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Michael McAleer
AU  - Lanfen Chu
PY  - 2014/05
DA  - 2014/05
TI  - Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
BT  - Proceedings of the 2012 2nd International Conference on Computer and Information Application (ICCIA 2012)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1389
EP  - 1392
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iccia.2012.345
ID  - McAleer2014/05
ER  -