Grey Forecasting Models for Social Media Adoptions of Transnational Enterprises

DOI

10.2991/3ca-13.2013.50How to use a DOI?

Keywords

grey system theory; grey forecasting; GM (1,1); social media; grey Verhulst model

Abstract

The lack of adoption data posed difficulties for social media researchers and resulted in scant social media studies focusing on forecasting models. To broach the subject, this study put efforts in studying the benchmark transnational enterprises and collecting the first-hand adoption time data through the APIs of three dominating social media platforms: Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter. Grey system theory facilitates prediction problems of insufficient information, small samples, and uncertainty. Therefore, we compared the performance of two grey forecasting models, GM (1, 1) and grey Verhulst model, to gain insight into social media adoption trends. Our preliminary results indicated that GM (1, 1) performs better as a potential forecasting model to keep track of trends in adoptions of social media platforms in the market.

Copyright

© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Hsia-Ching Chang
AU  - Chen-Ya Wang
PY  - 2013/04
DA  - 2013/04
TI  - Grey Forecasting Models for Social Media Adoptions of Transnational Enterprises
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Computer, Communication, Control and Automation
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 198
EP  - 201
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/3ca-13.2013.50
DO  - 10.2991/3ca-13.2013.50
ID  - Chang2013/04
ER  -