Probability Prediction of Short- and Medium-Term Seismic Intensity in North China Based on non-stationary Poisson model

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-404-4_31How to use a DOI?

Keywords

non-stationary poisson model; North China; probability prediction

Abstract

Based on the seismic magnitude-frequency relationship observed for earthquakes with a local magnitude (M_L) of 2.0 or higher in North China between 1970 and 2022, a maximum cutoff magnitude of M_L7.3 is projected under long-term conditions. Based on a three-year-scale scanning, we forecast the maximum cutoff magnitude for the year 2023 as M_L5.5, with a seismic activity intensity of M_L5.0. This paper provides seismic frequencies and probabilities for earthquakes with M_L4.0 and M_L5.0 or higher in North China, Yanshan–Bohai Seismic Belt, Shanxi Seismic Belt, Hebei Plain Seismic Belt, and Yishu Seismic Belt in 2023. The analysis indicates that the Hebei Plain Belt is likely to have the highest probability of earthquakes with M_L4.0 or higher. In the long-term background, the maximum cutoff magnitude for Shandong and its neighboring areas is estimated to be M_L6.0. Through a three-year-scale scanning approach, it is forecasted that the maximum cutoff magnitude for the year 2023 in the areas will be M_L4.9, with seismic activity intensity at M_L4.3. Additionally, this paper divides Shandong and nearby regions into seven tectonic regions for seismic magnitude-frequency calculations and provides seismic probability forecasts for each region.

Copyright

© 2024 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Rui Zhao
AU  - Huawei Cui
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/04/29
TI  - Probability Prediction of Short- and Medium-Term Seismic Intensity in North China Based on non-stationary Poisson model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2024 3rd International Conference on Structural Seismic Resistance, Monitoring and Detection (SSRMD 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 316
EP  - 323
SN  - 2589-4943
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-404-4_31
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-404-4_31
ID  - Zhao2024
ER  -