System Analysis and Forecasting of the Relationship Between Economic Factors and the Epidemic Process COVID-19 to Optimize International Transport Communications in the Context of a Pandemic

DOI

10.2991/assehr.k.201105.084How to use a DOI?

Keywords

COVID-19, epidemic process, system analysis, forecasting, mathematical simulation, linear regression models, international transport logistics

Abstract

Has been presents the results of system analysis and short-term forecasting of the impact of economic factors on the development of the epidemic process COVID-19 and assessment of opportunities of optimization of transport communications and logistics cooperation between countries with different socio-economic and demographic development, as well as geographical position in the global pandemic COVID-19. A kinetic model of the development of the epidemic process caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, represented by a system of linear differential equations, is developed. As a result of the study of this mathematical model, the conditions for stabilization and limitation of the epidemic process are obtained. Multiple linear regression models have been developed that characterize the dynamics of morbidity and survival of patients in the epidemic process, taking into account such economic indicators as the price of a barrel of Brent oil, one Troy ounce of gold and silver, bitcoin, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan to the Russian ruble, the dollar to the Russian ruble, the Chinese yuan to the dollar. Conducted research for a number of countries, including Australia, Austria, Belarus, Germany, India, Spain, Italy, China, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, USA, Ukraine, France, Estonia. A hypothesis is proposed about the incidence and survival gradients that may have a dynamically unstable equilibrium point in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic in a certain international cluster of countries (regions). The results of research and theoretical generalizations can be used to minimize social and economic losses in the face of repeated epidemics caused by COVID-19 and similar challenges in the future.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - A. Davidovsky
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/11/06
TI  - System Analysis and Forecasting of the Relationship Between Economic Factors and the Epidemic Process COVID-19 to Optimize International Transport Communications in the Context of a Pandemic
BT  - Proceedings of the Research Technologies of Pandemic Coronavirus Impact (RTCOV 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 473
EP  - 479
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.201105.084
DO  - 10.2991/assehr.k.201105.084
ID  - Davidovsky2020
ER  -