Proceedings of the Rocscience International Conference (RIC 2023)

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A Simplified Method of Incorporating Monitored Data for Settlement Prediction Using Bayesian Back Analysis Compared with Settle3

Authors
Merrick Jones1, 2, *, Shan Huang2, Jinsong Huang2
1Science & Environment, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
2Tetra Tech Coffey Pty Ltd, Chatswood, NSW, Australia
*Corresponding author. Email: Merrick.Jones@tetratech.com
Corresponding Author
Merrick Jones
Available Online 8 November 2023.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-258-3_56How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Bayesian updating; consolidation; embankment; settlement prediction
Abstract

Simplification of the geotechnical model and soil parameters is common in engineering practice however review of the performance to verify and updated the prediction is seldom. However, oversimplification may not capture the appropriate conditions for reliable settlement prediction. Bayesian back analysis provides a way to update the adopted prior parameters using monitored data. Parameters such as the compression ratio, recompression ratio, creep strain rate and the coefficient of compressibility were treated as random variables. Prior predictions for a three layered model were analysed using two numerical analysis programs for comparison. Posterior predictions using a simplified model showed the surface settlement was well predicted utilising about 117 to 215 days of observed data. The settlement data was used to update the selected parameters through Bayesian back analysis to fit the time-settlement history.

Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the Rocscience International Conference (RIC 2023)
Series
Atlantis Highlights in Engineering
Publication Date
8 November 2023
ISBN
10.2991/978-94-6463-258-3_56
ISSN
2589-4943
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-258-3_56How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Merrick Jones
AU  - Shan Huang
AU  - Jinsong Huang
PY  - 2023
DA  - 2023/11/08
TI  - A Simplified Method of Incorporating Monitored Data for Settlement Prediction Using Bayesian Back Analysis Compared with Settle3
BT  - Proceedings of the Rocscience International Conference  (RIC 2023)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 605
EP  - 614
SN  - 2589-4943
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-258-3_56
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-258-3_56
ID  - Jones2023
ER  -