Prediction of Climate Change Impacts on Blue and Green Water Resources in the Lianshui River Basin

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.028How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Climate change, Blue water, Green water, SWAT, Lianshui basin

Abstract

PSO particle swarm optimization algorithm in combination with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficient KGE objective function is introduced to calibrate the model parameters based on Xiangxiang station measured discharges and MOD16 evapo transpiration data. Moreover, p-factor, r-factor, R2, NSE and PBIAS are also performed to evaluate the model simulation results and uncertainty, therefore the SWAT model suitable for blue water and green water simulation in Liangshui Watershed is established. Climate change have been divided into three climatic background period of 1996-2015, 2020-2049, 2070-2100, and into 9 climate change scenarios according to inputs of the future climate conditions, which had generated from HadGEM2- AO atmospheric model in typical concentration path of the rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6 and rcp8.5. Which simulate and analyze spatiotemporal characteristics of blue and green water resources in the Lianshui basin under the long-term climate change effects of future 60 years. Result showed that the Lianshui river basin had some extent of decrease in blue water resources (1.4-17.3%) and green water storage (7.8-19.7%), while the green water flow (3.5-12.4%) increased under different RCP emission scenarios from 2020 to 2079. Even taking the parameter prediction uncertainty range of 95PPU into consideration, the future growth trend of green water flow is also obvious. Hence, taking green water resources into the future water resources evaluation strategies to achieve blue water and green water comprehensive planning and management is indispensable for the Lianshui river basin.

Copyright

© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Dehua Mao
AU  - Zhengzui Li
AU  - Chang Feng
AU  - Ruizhi Guo
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/04/12
TI  - Prediction of Climate Change Impacts on Blue and Green Water Resources in the Lianshui River Basin
BT  - Proceedings of the 9th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 176
EP  - 182
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.028
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.028
ID  - Mao2021
ER  -