Research on Macroeconomics Effect from Oil Price Fluctuations --Empirical Evidence from Major Oil-exporting Countries

DOI

10.2991/msie-19.2020.69How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Macroeconomics – Oil Export – VAR Model.

Abstract

This study is focused on the impact of oil price fluctuation on two groups of countries: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC. The data set include all eight OPEC and seven non-OPEC countries. The real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment rate were chosen as macroeconomic variables with the period from 1993 to 2016. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was taken as a measure of oil prices. The main purpose of the research is to find out whether the selected economic indicators of OPEC countries are more sensitive to fluctuation in oil prices than those in non-OPEC oil-exporting countries. In order to compare the two sorts of countries, two separate vector auto regression (VAR) models were used for non-OPEC and OPEC countries. The result of the research proved the existence of a connection between oil prices and inflation, real GDP, the unemployment rate for both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. In addition, results show that the relationship holds only in the short and medium run, but not in the long run. Impulse response function indicated that inflation and unemployment rate for OPEC countries are more sensitive to oil price fluctuation than in the case of non-OPEC countries. However, real GDP growth is more sensitive in non-OPEC countries.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Peizhi Wang
AU  - Raspopov Vladyslav
PY  - 2020/01
DA  - 2020/01
TI  - Research on Macroeconomics Effect from Oil Price Fluctuations --Empirical Evidence from Major Oil-exporting Countries
BT  - Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Management Science and Industrial Economy (MSIE 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 345
EP  - 351
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/msie-19.2020.69
DO  - 10.2991/msie-19.2020.69
ID  - Wang2020/01
ER  -