Forecasting on China’s Labor Supply and Demand Gap during 2018-2035

DOI

10.2991/msbda-19.2019.56How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Labor supply and demand, Coefficient of Increased Employment, ARIMA model, Technological progress

Abstract

Based on the changing discipline of labor participation proportion in different age groups rule and the prediction results of future population structure and total amount by using Leslie model, this paper estimates the labor supply of working-age population in China from 2018 to 2035. In addition, based on the analysis of time series model, this paper predicts the change of labor demand in China from 2018 to 2035. The influence of technological progress is considered in the process of forecasting labor demand. The forecasting results show that the gap between supply and demand of labor force in China will be widen in the near future. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to guarantee the supply of labor force in China in the aspects of population policy, retirement policy, industrial structure reform and education system.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Li Sun
AU  - Kai Sun
AU  - Hongxiao Zhang
AU  - Jinchu Zhou
PY  - 2019/08
DA  - 2019/08
TI  - Forecasting on China’s Labor Supply and Demand Gap during 2018-2035
BT  - Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Modeling, Simulation and Big Data Analysis (MSBDA 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 359
EP  - 365
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/msbda-19.2019.56
DO  - 10.2991/msbda-19.2019.56
ID  - Sun2019/08
ER  -