Evaluation for Parachute Reliability Based on Fiducial Inference and Bayesian Network

DOI

10.2991/mmssa-18.2019.29How to use a DOI?

Keywords

parachute; reliability; Bayesian network; fiducial inference; stress-strength model

Abstract

Reliability is an important indicator for evaluating the performance of a parachute system. Verification of reliability often requires a large number of successful system-level airdrop tests, which is often difficult to accept in practice. This paper proposes a reliability analysis method based on Fiducial inference and Bayesian network. The method firstly decomposes the parachute into each group according to the system composition, and uses the layered BN to represent; secondly, based on the Fiducial inference method, the mean value and the lower confidence limit of the strength test data of each group are calculated. And apply the stress-strength model to calculate the probability that the intensity is greater than the stress, and as the reliability of each component; third, considering the conduction relationship between the nodes of each layer, respectively calculate the node conduction probability. The joint probability of the node with conduction relationship is calculated by the fusion node probability based Bayesian. Finally, based on the prior probability of the node, the posterior probability of each node is calculated and the parachute groups (parts) system are obtained. The analysis of the example shows that the calculation process of the method can fuse the reliability information of each layer of the system, which improve the accuracy of the system reliability. It can be used for the reliability analysis of the parachute system in the design stage, also can provide reference for inspection and acceptance of parachute system.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Zhanfeng Wang
AU  - Jianbo Wang
AU  - Pengfei Meng
AU  - Fuyong Wang
AU  - Wenbao Dai
PY  - 2019/01
DA  - 2019/01
TI  - Evaluation for Parachute Reliability Based on Fiducial Inference and Bayesian Network
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Mathematics, Modeling, Simulation and Statistics Application (MMSSA 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 124
EP  - 127
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/mmssa-18.2019.29
DO  - 10.2991/mmssa-18.2019.29
ID  - Wang2019/01
ER  -