Bio-economic Dynamics of African Swine Fever: Optimal Control of Transmission and Economic Resource Allocation

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-680-7_18How to use a DOI?

Keywords

African swine fever; mathematical epidemiology; optimal control; Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle; economic impact; cost-effectiveness analysis; South Korea case study; nonlinear dynamical systems

Abstract

This paper develops an optimal control model to address the fundamental trade-off between the economic stability of the South Korean pig industry and the transmission of African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV). Therefore, the main objective is to identify the intervention strategies that, during outbreak periods, optimally balance aggressive disease mitigation with the preservation of sectoral economic capital. To achieve this, we formulate a coupled host–vector epidemiological model integrated with a dynamic economic-capital variable, enabling simultaneous analysis of biological transmission and economic resilience. The model incorporates three control measures, which are vaccination, isolation/treatment, and vector control, while explicitly accounting for their implementation costs and long-term economic consequences. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we were able to identify intervention strategies that minimize the infected population while simultaneously maximizing the trajectory of economic capital, thereby guaranteeing the long-term sustainability of the industry. These results are reinforced by numerical simulations, which demonstrate that coordinated and optimally timed interventions significantly outperform constant-effort policies.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Oussama Lazaar
AU  - Mustapha Serhani
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/20
TI  - Bio-economic Dynamics of African Swine Fever: Optimal Control of Transmission and Economic Resource Allocation
BT  - Proceedings of the Conference Morocco-Korea Cooperation: A Lever for Afro-Asian Development (MKC 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 248
EP  - 262
SN  - 2667-128X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-680-7_18
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-680-7_18
ID  - Lazaar2026
ER  -