Passenger Flow Forecasting for Chinese High Speed Rail Network

DOI

10.2991/meic-15.2015.153How to use a DOI?

Keywords

rail transport; passenger flow; forecasting; four-step method; high-speed rail network.

Abstract

Forecasting passenger flow accurately, especially for the whole network, is extremely important for the holistic optimization of transportation organization. This paper is concerned with the entire high-speed rail network, not just focusing on one single channel, and proposes a complete forecasting process by considering the unique operating characteristics of Chinese high-speed rail network. The process consists of four steps to forecast the total passenger flow, the economy-based demand growth, the diverted demand and the induced demand. Meanwhile, three steps have been mainly improved. First, predict the future total passenger flow by analyzing its relation to the rail network and calculating the restriction of transport capacity. Second, cluster origin–destination (OD) flows by considering three factors (GDP, population and the distance) in order to get reasonable parameter. Third, adjust the induced demand according to the restriction of the total passenger flow. At last, the travel demand of the whole high-speed rail network of China in 2016 is forecasted.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Nuannuan Leng
AU  - Lei Nie
AU  - Gencai Guo
AU  - Xin Wu
PY  - 2015/04
DA  - 2015/04
TI  - Passenger Flow Forecasting for Chinese High Speed Rail Network
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Mechatronics, Electronic, Industrial and Control Engineering
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 675
EP  - 678
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/meic-15.2015.153
DO  - 10.2991/meic-15.2015.153
ID  - Leng2015/04
ER  -