Road Traffic Accident Forecast Based on Optimized Grey Verhulst Model

DOI

10.2991/jimec-16.2016.100How to use a DOI?

Keywords

road traffic accident; grey verhulst model; prediction; accuracy test

Abstract

Road traffic safety system is a grey system, which can be forecasted by the optimized Grey Verhulst model developed in this paper. The original Grey Verhulst model is optimized and improved from two aspects: the grey whitening derivative problem and the initial values. The new optimized model is established to forecast road traffic accidents, meanwhile the detail modeling steps is also given. Taking Chinese's road traffic accident statistics as an example, the optimized model is tested. The result shows that the improved Grey Verhulst model is with high prediction accuracy and low error, which provides a reference for the accurate prediction of road traffic accidents.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Subing Liu
AU  - Congwei Wu
PY  - 2016/10
DA  - 2016/10
TI  - Road Traffic Accident Forecast Based on Optimized Grey Verhulst Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 Joint International Information Technology, Mechanical and Electronic Engineering
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 546
EP  - 551
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jimec-16.2016.100
DO  - 10.2991/jimec-16.2016.100
ID  - Liu2016/10
ER  -