Application of Sensitivity Analysis, “Worst Case”, and Maximum Possible Risk (MPR) to Adventitious Events
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- statistics, probability, risk analysis, bioterrorism, anthrax
We present here a logical progression of probability and risk analysis for adventi-tious events, events whose probability is not well measurably different from zero (WMDZ). We will show that such analy-ses culminate in maximum possible risk (MPR) and, further, that MPR is equiva-lent to a boundary condition for classic sensitivity analysis when applied to events which are not WMDZ. Further, we shall show that use of counter-factual probabilities provides a good estimate of these boundary conditions.
- © 2008, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - T. Taylor AU - T. Whalen AU - M. Cohen PY - 2008/12 DA - 2008/12 TI - Application of Sensitivity Analysis, “Worst Case”, and Maximum Possible Risk (MPR) to Adventitious Events BT - Proceedings of the 11th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2008) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 73 EP - 78 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12 ID - Taylor2008/12 ER -