Proceedings of the VIth International Workshop 'Critical Infrastructures: Contingency Management, Intelligent, Agent-Based, Cloud Computing and Cyber Security' (IWCI 2019)

Situation Management of Agricultural Production Based on the Prediction of Prices for Agricultural Products

Authors
Marina Polkovskaya
Corresponding Author
Marina Polkovskaya
Available Online September 2019.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/iwci-19.2019.15How to use a DOI?
Keywords
price forecasting; trend; seasonal component estimation; situational management; parametric programming problem
Abstract
There were analyzed the main global and Russian trends of agricultural prices in this article. According to the mathematical model “Cassandra”, were allocated a trend, a seasonal component and a remainder term of a series of average monthly prices for various agricultural products in the Irkutsk region for 2012-2017. At the same time, the relationship between the components of the obtained models is additive. By using models taking into account seasonality, the predicted values of the parameter under study for 2018 were calculated. The price values were used to solve the problem of optimizing agricultural production for JSC "Irkutsk seeds" in the Irkutsk region. According to obtained results, the smallest profit will be received from the sale of manufactured products in October, and the largest - in July. For a more accurate calculation of profits in the sale of products at the most favorable prices, an optimization task requires the introduction of additional parameters taking into account storage costs, storage capacity, product losses, etc. The received results of the analysis of food prices excreting seasonal component and their use in mathematical programming problems can be used by agricultural producers in the planning of production.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

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Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Marina Polkovskaya
PY  - 2019/09
DA  - 2019/09
TI  - Situation Management of Agricultural Production Based on the Prediction of Prices for Agricultural Products
BT  - VIth International Workshop 'Critical Infrastructures: Contingency Management, Intelligent, Agent-Based, Cloud Computing and Cyber Security' (IWCI 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 83
EP  - 89
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iwci-19.2019.15
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iwci-19.2019.15
ID  - Polkovskaya2019/09
ER  -