Scenario Modeling of the Development of Agricultural Production at the Level of Rural Territory of the Region

DOI

10.2991/iscfec-19.2019.62How to use a DOI?

Keywords

scenario modeling, optimization, agrarian production, development scenarios, rural territories.

Abstract

The article proves the necessity of using the methods of scenario modeling of the development of agricultural production in the design of an effective development strategy of rural territory in the region. It is shown that it is necessary to use a scenario approach that allows to substantiate alternative scenarios for the development of rural territories for the future when making models for the development of agricultural production. It is proved that the rational establishment of the optimal production structure of the crop and livestock sectors of agricultural organi-zations can significantly improve the economic efficiency of agri-cultural production. The algorithm for optimization of the indus-trial branch structure in the system «agricultural organization - rural territory» is proposed, in which separate agricultural organ-izations are treated as independent market entities. The main results of optimization of the production structure of agricultural organizations on the example of rural territories of the Non-chernozem zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan are presented. It is shown that increasing of the efficiency of agricultural produc-tion is a key factor expressing the positive development of the social sphere and the infrastructure of rural areas. The forecast scenarios for the growth of production and consumption of agri-cultural food products are proposed, which allow to form various options for rational provision of food for the rural population. The development scenarios are based on model solutions, as well as forecasting of the possible volumes of production and sales of the main types of agricultural products by farms of all categories.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - E. Stovba
AU  - A. Stovba
PY  - 2019/05
DA  - 2019/05
TI  - Scenario Modeling of the Development of Agricultural Production at the Level of Rural Territory of the Region
BT  - Proceedings of the International Science and Technology Conference "FarEastСon" (ISCFEC 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 225
EP  - 227
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iscfec-19.2019.62
DO  - 10.2991/iscfec-19.2019.62
ID  - Stovba2019/05
ER  -